Santa Cruz, turnout or turned-off?
UPDATE: In Tuesday's paper, with 55 percent of the vote counted, El Deber puts the abstention rate at 34,43 percent. According to my rudimentary calculations that means that in fact only around 520,000 people actually voted in favour of the referendum on an electorate of 935,000 and a population in Santa Cruz of 2,5 million!
A high abstention rate could undermine the victory of Bolivia´s rebel-province
SANTA CRUZ – Bolivia is busily trying to figure out what the repercussions are of Sunday's referendum that ended with an impressive victory of the Yes-vote. The referendum was held by the province of Santa Cruz on a statute for autonomy, a 168-article document meant to enshrine the independence of the province versus the central government. However, since both the statute and the referendum to approve it have been organized without any official or judicial recognition on a national level, the whole thing has been steeped in controversy from the start.
Nonetheless, as soon as the first exit poll results were announced on Sunday night, cruceños as the people of Santa Cruz are called, rushed into the central square waving green-and-white flags. Hundreds of 4x4 vehicles jammed the streets of Bolivia's agricultural capital, while people in the neighbouring provinces of Tarija, Beni and Pando also celebrated. All three regions have scheduled their own polls on autonomy in the upcoming months, which will either further the cause of Santa Cruz or undermine it depending on the results.
"We have placed the first stones for a cathedral of liberty, democracy and a Bolivia of autonomous regions," claimed Ruben Costas, the prefect of Santa Cruz, as he addressed the crowd. Costas was flanked by colleagues from the other three dissenting provinces. Local governments in Cochabamba and Chuquisaca provinces, who have still to decide on a referendum, also share their aspirations for greater autonomy
Opposition to the government has been fuelling these referenda just as much as the desire for autonomy, several commentators pointed out. 'Yes triumphs and Morales doesn't accept defeat,' a local newspaper headlined yesterday, making clear the link between the government and the No-vote. In fact, 90 percent of voters admitted that they hadn't actually read the drafted statute for autonomy. Voting was about a show of hands of those opposed to Morales' government.
As a result, the big win for the Yes-vote – 85 percent – calmed the nerves in Santa Cruz and left those who reject Evo Morales plans feeling triumphant. However, the victory may not be as much of a thrashing as the organizers of the poll make it out to be.
It all depends on the actual turnout. Because the vote in Santa Cruz was deemed illegal by the government and also lacked the approval of the national electoral court, opponents of the referendum were urged to stay at home.
Of the 2,5 million cruceños only 935,000 are registered to vote. The pro-referendum newspaper El Deber acknowledged that the abstention was around 25 percent and the government claims that up to 39 percent didn't vote.
If El Deber is correct in its prediction, then 'only' around 596,000 people actually voted in favour of autonomy, which is still a significant number. But if the government figures are correct, that number goes down to about 484,000 votes, which is only a very slim majority and nowhere near the landslide victory predicted by the Santa Cruz administration.
The actual margin is more important than in 'normal' elections, because of the nature of this referendum. First it's lack of any kind official recognition demands a very clear outcome of the vote, to lend it some moral authority at least. Secondly, actually implementing the autonomy statute will be nearly impossible, because the government maintains control over most mechanisms of power, such as public servant salaries.
"If the Yes-vote is really as impressive as the media make it out to be, then the government must make some major changes," acknowledged Fernando Valdivia, a political commentator and government supporter. He predicts that in that case president Evo Morales will be forced to replace his most controversial ministers and may have to rethink a proposed new constitution. That would spell all sorts of legal problems and cause Morales some embarrassing backtracking.
But if that's not the case and the abstention is as marked as the government makes it out to be, then that leaves Morales with a lot more room for manoeuvring. He will stand firm on his constitution, making any kind of settlement between the two parties almost impossible.
Why? Because that new constitution is at the source of regional discontent with the central government. It's strong pro-indigenous and socialist content and the controversial way in which it was approved – inside an army barracks – have made it a rallying point for opposition forces across the country. A referendum on that constitution was initially planned for Sunday, but postponed after Santa Cruz announced its own popular poll.
Santa Cruz´ oppostion to an all-regulating constitution is easily explained. The province has grown from an outback into Bolivia's economic powerhouse, responsible for a third of the national GDP. Exports account for more than half of the national total, the region boasts 40 percent of the country's arable land and one fifth of it's gas reserves.
Meanwhile Morales' government is pushing for more control over those resources, claiming the benefits should go to country's poor as a whole. Nationalisation of the oil and gas industry and land reform has led to outcry in the dissenting regions. The Santa Cruz government says it deserves a larger slice of the royalties from fossil fuels and claims that Morales' agricultural policies are undermining one of the few productive sectors of the economy.
And they have a point. With rising world food prices boosting the importance of agricultural production and inflation wreaking havoc on the purchasing power of the poor here, Evo Morales may do well to appease Bolivia's corn-belt, no matter how many voters stayed at home.
A high abstention rate could undermine the victory of Bolivia´s rebel-province
SANTA CRUZ – Bolivia is busily trying to figure out what the repercussions are of Sunday's referendum that ended with an impressive victory of the Yes-vote. The referendum was held by the province of Santa Cruz on a statute for autonomy, a 168-article document meant to enshrine the independence of the province versus the central government. However, since both the statute and the referendum to approve it have been organized without any official or judicial recognition on a national level, the whole thing has been steeped in controversy from the start.
Nonetheless, as soon as the first exit poll results were announced on Sunday night, cruceños as the people of Santa Cruz are called, rushed into the central square waving green-and-white flags. Hundreds of 4x4 vehicles jammed the streets of Bolivia's agricultural capital, while people in the neighbouring provinces of Tarija, Beni and Pando also celebrated. All three regions have scheduled their own polls on autonomy in the upcoming months, which will either further the cause of Santa Cruz or undermine it depending on the results.
"We have placed the first stones for a cathedral of liberty, democracy and a Bolivia of autonomous regions," claimed Ruben Costas, the prefect of Santa Cruz, as he addressed the crowd. Costas was flanked by colleagues from the other three dissenting provinces. Local governments in Cochabamba and Chuquisaca provinces, who have still to decide on a referendum, also share their aspirations for greater autonomy
Opposition to the government has been fuelling these referenda just as much as the desire for autonomy, several commentators pointed out. 'Yes triumphs and Morales doesn't accept defeat,' a local newspaper headlined yesterday, making clear the link between the government and the No-vote. In fact, 90 percent of voters admitted that they hadn't actually read the drafted statute for autonomy. Voting was about a show of hands of those opposed to Morales' government.
As a result, the big win for the Yes-vote – 85 percent – calmed the nerves in Santa Cruz and left those who reject Evo Morales plans feeling triumphant. However, the victory may not be as much of a thrashing as the organizers of the poll make it out to be.
It all depends on the actual turnout. Because the vote in Santa Cruz was deemed illegal by the government and also lacked the approval of the national electoral court, opponents of the referendum were urged to stay at home.
Of the 2,5 million cruceños only 935,000 are registered to vote. The pro-referendum newspaper El Deber acknowledged that the abstention was around 25 percent and the government claims that up to 39 percent didn't vote.
If El Deber is correct in its prediction, then 'only' around 596,000 people actually voted in favour of autonomy, which is still a significant number. But if the government figures are correct, that number goes down to about 484,000 votes, which is only a very slim majority and nowhere near the landslide victory predicted by the Santa Cruz administration.
The actual margin is more important than in 'normal' elections, because of the nature of this referendum. First it's lack of any kind official recognition demands a very clear outcome of the vote, to lend it some moral authority at least. Secondly, actually implementing the autonomy statute will be nearly impossible, because the government maintains control over most mechanisms of power, such as public servant salaries.
"If the Yes-vote is really as impressive as the media make it out to be, then the government must make some major changes," acknowledged Fernando Valdivia, a political commentator and government supporter. He predicts that in that case president Evo Morales will be forced to replace his most controversial ministers and may have to rethink a proposed new constitution. That would spell all sorts of legal problems and cause Morales some embarrassing backtracking.
But if that's not the case and the abstention is as marked as the government makes it out to be, then that leaves Morales with a lot more room for manoeuvring. He will stand firm on his constitution, making any kind of settlement between the two parties almost impossible.
Why? Because that new constitution is at the source of regional discontent with the central government. It's strong pro-indigenous and socialist content and the controversial way in which it was approved – inside an army barracks – have made it a rallying point for opposition forces across the country. A referendum on that constitution was initially planned for Sunday, but postponed after Santa Cruz announced its own popular poll.
Santa Cruz´ oppostion to an all-regulating constitution is easily explained. The province has grown from an outback into Bolivia's economic powerhouse, responsible for a third of the national GDP. Exports account for more than half of the national total, the region boasts 40 percent of the country's arable land and one fifth of it's gas reserves.
Meanwhile Morales' government is pushing for more control over those resources, claiming the benefits should go to country's poor as a whole. Nationalisation of the oil and gas industry and land reform has led to outcry in the dissenting regions. The Santa Cruz government says it deserves a larger slice of the royalties from fossil fuels and claims that Morales' agricultural policies are undermining one of the few productive sectors of the economy.
And they have a point. With rising world food prices boosting the importance of agricultural production and inflation wreaking havoc on the purchasing power of the poor here, Evo Morales may do well to appease Bolivia's corn-belt, no matter how many voters stayed at home.
Labels: Bolivia, Evo Morales, Santa Cruz
posted by PIT @ 6:32 PM
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