Calling in the cavalry

ASUNCIÓN – For the first time since he announced his candidacy in December 2006, the campaign of former bishop Fernando Lugo is starting to show signs of vulnerability.

Fernando Lugo (centre) is accompanied by his vice-presidential candidate Frederico Franco (left) and Hebe de Bonafini of the Argentine human rights group Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo as he walked from his house to the polling booth this morning. (photo PIT)

An opinion poll released by the Ultima Hora newspaper a week before the election on Sunday put the candidate for the Patriotic Alliance for Change at 34.5 percent of the vote, slightly more than 5 points ahead of his nearest rival, ex-general Lino Oviedo. Blanca Ovelar, running for the Colorado party came in a very close third with 28.5 percent.The lead is still significant, but less than it was in February, when Lugo could claim almost 39 percent of the vote. More importantly it shows that while Lugo and Oviedo have more or less stagnated in the polls, the government's candidate is quickly gaining on them.

The difference with a few months ago is that now the mighty Colorado machinery has been put into gear. The party has been in power for over 60 years controls most of the bureaucracy. Now it's closing the ranks and calling for a show of hands on Sunday. Public servants received a personal note from former education minister Ovelar reminding them what the government had done for them. They were also invited to attend rallies and political events in support of the government candidate.

Anyone walking down the street in Asuncion is impressed by the number of SUV's bearing huge red flags and honking their horns. Government buildings are draped in propaganda. Even Paraguay's most famed author, the deceased Augusto Roa Bastos, was used – or perhaps abused - in this campaign. He once famously suggested that his country might be better off being run by a woman. The Colorado party has pounced on those words, using them to promote the would-be first female president of Paraguay.

There's violence too, opposition leaders say. "They've killed at least two leaders of the Tekojoja movement (which supports Lugo) in the last month," claims Belarmino Balbuena, a rural leader and candidate for senator. Although he doesn't know who's responsible, Balbuena believes the escalation of violence is meant to intimidate voters.

Other tactics are also being employed. Last weekend Defence Minister Nelson Mora was linked to the retaining of 200 identity documents belonging to residents in a poor neighbourhood in Asunción. Mora and his aides had gone to the neighbourhood supposedly to hand out food. After he left some of his co-workers told the people that to receive more food they would have to hand in their documents, which 200 did. Opposition parties were notified of the extortion and warned the team of OAS observers, who promptly went to look for themselves. The opposition Liberal Party pressed charges. The intention was obvious – without an identity card, you can't vote. Meanwhile there have been numerous rallies around town and across the country, with massive handouts, to drum up support for Blanca Ovelar.

Last Saturday the party even organized a march of the 'Republican Cavalry,' something dating back to the days of the Colorado dictator General Alfredor Stroessner. Senators and government ministers arrived at the Plaza Caballero on horseback while Ovelar entered the arena in a horse drawn buggy. Spectators attending the rally waved their red handkerchiefs, as president Nicanor Duarte scolded Fernando Lugo for apparently having banned such an equestrian gathering while he was bishop of San Pedro. "As for this hypocritical monseñor who banned a spectacle of the people, we will make him pay in votes," the president said.

In fact the Colorado party may well be served by fewer votes, at least in general. Everything indicates that the ruling party stands to benefit from a low turn out. According to the poll published by Ultima Hora, the lower the turnout the better the chances of Blanca Ovelar. If only 40 percent of the country's three million eligible voters show up, Ovelar will beat Lugo by 34 to 31 percent. For Lugo to win with a clear margin at least a 55 percent must show up. It won't come as a surprise then that the campaign of the former bishop is doing everything it can to get out the vote.

Crucial, in that sense, are the two million Paraguayans who live abroad. By law they can't vote outside of Paraguay, a rule that favours the Colorado party, whose iron grip is felt more closely in Caacupé than in Madrid or New York. Nonetheless Lugo has been wooing their support, hoping that they in turn will influence their family and friends in Paraguay. To do so he has taken to the information highway launching several videos on the YouTube Internet site over the past year, addressing his compatriots abroad.

Meanwhile, a huge chunk of the Paraguayan diaspora lives not in Spain or the US but across the border in Argentina. Somewhere between 800,000 and 1.5 million Paraguayans reside and work at least part of the year in our country. Getting them to make the journey to north to vote on Sunday could put Lugo well on the way to victory. In that light, President Cristina Fernández' decision to give Paraguayans the day off on the Friday before and the Monday after the elections, was seen by many here as a muted sign of support for the bishop.