War? Statistically unlikely

Latin America is just no fun anymore. Last week around this time, war correspondents from London to New York and Rome were tossing flack jackets into suitcases and making last minute updates to their life insurance policies, about to embark on what surely promised to be career-enhancing clash of nations.


But no such luck. To everybody’s relief, especially for those living along both sides of Colombia’s borders were anxiety was most felt, an armed conflict has been averted.

The meeting of the Rio-group on Friday was a breath of fresh air after a week in which presidents Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and Rafael Correa of Ecuador exchanged barbs with their Colombian counterpart Alvaro Uribe. The row, as has been exhaustedly reported, was over Colombia’s bombing of a guerrilla-camp on Ecuadorian soil, followed by raid to collect the body of FARC commander Raul Reyes. Correa says Uribe lied about the nature of the attack. Uribe claims that both Correa and Chávez were cutting secret deals with the FARC.

What the meeting in Santo Domingo proves is that diplomacy among Latin American states does work, while boosting the regional and domestic status of those leaders who played peace brokers. The day was drawn out and at times got messy as Correa and Uribe both vehemently defended their points of view¬ (Chávez – behaving like a puppy dog after ordering 10 battalions to the border, showed his musical side and sang a Dominican folk tune). But despite the swaggering egos, a clear conclusion was reached, satisfactory to all parties, at least for the time being.

Uribe apologised and promised never to violate Ecuadorian soil again. Meanwhile an investigation will probe Correa’s alleged dealings with the FARC. The most important result of the summit, however, was the unanimous condemnation of the violation of sovereign states. Colombia resisted heavily, claiming that its citizens had a right to security over all other issues. But this was the Rio group and not an OAS meeting. The significant difference is that the US is only a member of the latter.

Last week the United States was the only country to back Uribe all the way. The US supported Colombia’s right to strike so-called terrorists outside its borders, as it has supported Israel’s right to do so in Lebanon and the Palestinian Occupied Territories and done so itself in Iraq and Afghanistan. On Friday, without the presence of its northern ally, Colombia was forced to accept the will of its neighbours.

A four-nation team took the lead in bringing about the negotiated truce. In the absence of Brazil’s Lula da Silva, Mexico’s president Felipe Calderón was the natural leader of that group. He has already shown himself a far more competent governor than his predecessor Vicente Fox. Internationally he has had less success – an absurdly low profile visit to the US last year without a single significant meeting was the absolute low point. After a cool headed display on Friday Mexico look forward to vying for regional leadership with Brazil.

The second member of that team was Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández. Mrs Kirchner, whose ties with Calderon are particularly close, stuck with the Mexican throughout pushing for a deal that would enshrine the sanctity of national sovereignty. After a disastrous state visit here in Argentina by an obscure and brutish African dictator last month, it was good to see an Argentine president making a difference for good in an international arena. Credit where credit is due. Ecuador’s Rafael Correa singled out Mrs. Kirchner’s intervention in the debate as a “tipping point”. She called on the delegates to condemn unilateralism while scolding “the boys” for their schoolyard rhetoric.

The other two to make a difference were Chile’s Michelle Bachelet and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, a classic product of Itamaraty, the temple to Brazilian diplomacy. Chile, historically at loggerheads with Bolivia and Peru, sees Ecuador as natural ally. But Bachelet didn’t leave nearly the footprint of her neighbour to the east.

Although there is still much to be learnt, for now at least things are back to normal. Venezuela and Colombia have announced the return of diplomatic ties. Ecuador has said it will take a while yet for the wounds to heal. Much must still be learnt from the extent of ties between Ecuador, Venezuela and the FARC.

Meanwhile though a war has been averted, and Latin America remains an exemplary exception in the world. Wars between nations are extremely scarce in the region. According to Princeton professor Miguel Centeno in Europe 62 percent of border disputes have ended in war, while in Latin America only 5 percent turned into armed conflict. Most of the borders between countries have hardly shifted since the days of the independence struggle.