The históricos last stand

It‘s been a Cuba-filled few days. Fidel Castro’s resignation, announced on Tuesday morning, caught many off guard. His brother Raúl succeeding him on Sunday did not.

What was surprising however, was his choice of vice-president. Many had expected that job to go to Carlos Lage (56), the man credited with Cuba’s economic growth over recent years. He was the second-in- command after Fidel took ill, and often replaced Raúl at official functions.

But the man who has led the Cuban armed forces as Defence minister for the past 49 years opted for someone closer to home for VP. José Ramón Machado Ventura (77) was with Raúl from their days as guerrillas in the Sierra Maestra — he’s what Cubans call a histórico, that curious species of uniformed dinosaur that surround the brothers Castro at state ceremonies.

Probably more than any other of that generation, he is Raúl’s man. As a doctor in charge of the Health Ministry for many years, he often fought with Fidel Castro over the latter’s meddling in health matters. According to cubanalisis.com it was always Raúl who brought him back into the fold. Since the late 1970s he has been in charge of organizing the all-powerful Politburo. An efficient bureaucrat, he’s also one of the most orthodox where changes in economic policy are concerned.

Machado is not the only old-timer to join the new Council of State. Replacing Raúl as Army chief is Julio Casas Rugiero (72). In fact the average age of the 31-member council is just over 71. Only three of them are under 60. Younger generations, even the die-hards who locals call the Taliban for their revolutionary fervour, have been passed over.

At a first glance the choice of such a group of veteran hands, many of whom were with the Castros from before the fall of Batista, would indicate consistency. Not just for now, but with the aim of keeping the regime going for decades to come. The message Raúl is conveying to the world is clear enough. Fidel or no Fidel, it’s business as usual. The guardians of the revolution are apparently as necessary as ever to keep communism on course.

But there’s another way to read this. Raúl Castro has chosen his ageing comrades to accompany him through this term as president. When those five years come to an end, he will be 81. Many of his key ministers will be on their last legs as well.

More importantly, there’s more than a slight chance that Fidel will be dead and gone and with him that mythical omniscient presence. (During his election speech Raúl said his brother would be ‘hearing the grass grow and finding out what can’t be seen beyond the corners,‘ citing Cuban poet Raúl Roa.)

Meanwhile, by not incorporating a younger generation in the upper echelons of power, Raúl Castro is not exactly paving the way for a smooth transition when his term comes to an end. It would be a lot easier to hand over power now, while things are quiet. In five years there is every possibility that increasing pressures from inside Cuba and abroad will conspire with the failing health of these elderly men, leaving them unable to pass on the torch.

The ambition of a fresh generation of state bureaucrats could be cut short by a popular uprising demanding democracy, or worse. Meanwhile the históricos may not even be alive to provide the iron grip needed to maintain stability.

A successful transition requires that those in power are still strong — even physically — to manage any upheavals, while the group destined to take over has the experience to assume the reigns at the drop of a hat. By pushing his comrades to hold office far beyond retirement age, while denying the young a chance at government, Raúl is setting the stage for a disastrous transition, at least from a Castro perspective.

So what‘s going on? Why sabotage the future government of the regime’s natural successors?
One reason could be that they simply can’t be trusted to carry out the party line. But if that’s the case it’s rather late in the game to find out.

Or perhaps, Raúl and his cronies are so addicted to power that they plan to cling on until the very end. That's certainly the view in Miami.

The also a third explanation. A form of state suicide, that may not be as bizarre as it sounds. The people Raúl is cutting out of the loop — the likes of Lage and Foreign minister Felipe Pérez Roque — are not exactly a breath of fresh air. Most of them have a background of student
activism, where indoctrination is at its strongest. These men and women, often hand-picked by Fidel, have shown an unflinching party loyalty and that they can be trusted to carry out the party line. Far from being democrats in the make, it’s more than possible that given a free reign of power these bureaucrats would propel Cuban authoritarianism into the second half of the 21st century.

Meanwhile, many of the históricos, men like Machado and Juan Almeida (81), started out on the revolutionary paths with laudable intentions. Their aim was to overthrow a ruthless dictator and restore Cuban pride and sovereignty. They saw their ideal of a free Cuba slowly turned into an open jail.

Some of these historic comandantes, like Huber Matos left, disillusioned. But others stayed on. At times their paths would cross with that of Fidel, but never too much to warrant being purged. Almeida — equal in rank to Raúl before Sunday — is often credited with protecting would-be victims of state persecution.

Now they are old and rickety, but not as ill as Fidel. So they find themselves at the helm, while the man they have loved, followed and feared for five decades is fading away.

Maybe, just maybe, they have decided to let history run its course. When they run out of steam in five years and there’s nobody ready in the side-lines to replace them, a power vacuum could arise. That would give dissident groups a shot at squeezing in. If the public perceive that the hand-over is messy and the younger generation are seen to be scrambling for the top jobs, then a general outcry and street demonstrations are likely. Much more than they were during the airtight transition that’s taking place now.

Open revolt is not the históricos style, not any more. Instead they have chosen to see the thing through to the very end, trying to ensure that the first generation of revolutionary leaders is also the last. Instead of providing a new crew to save the vessel, maybe the sailors of the Granma are planning to go down with the ship.