N-O spells Good for All

Hugo Chávez proposal to turn Venezuela into a centralized socialist state was cut short at the ballot box on Sunday. No beat yes by 50,7 percent to 49,29 percent, the electoral board announced early yesterday morning after a gruelling five-hour delay. Possibly more surprising than the result, was the relaxed way in which Chávez conceded defeat. During a press conference here for foreign journalists he chatted a little about a "photo finish" and recounted an old army story. A big change from his aggressive manner the days before. On Friday evening he warned the nation that voting "yes" in the referendum meant voting for Chávez. Voting No, he said, meant voting for his imperial arch nemesis George W. Bush. Although yesterday he didn´t go so far as to congratulate the US president on his win, he did congratulate the opposition and accepted that the old 1999 constitution was the way forward.

Student leader Yon Goicoechea poses for photos while talking to journalists during a march in Caracas. PIT

A number of conclusions can be drawn from the victory of the No-vote. First of all, Venezuelans are Bolivarians, not Socialists. Exactly a year ago more than sixty percent of the country re-endorsed Chávez in the presidential elections. It was the reward for what he has dubbed the Bolivarian Revolution, an extensive state run and oil financed welfare programme, which includes massive health and education projects for Venezuela's poor. Wether you consider it a government duty or populism, it goes down well with voters. What doesn't go down well is the idea, as a Caracas hotdog ventor told me, "of this place turning into Cuba." The turnout was lower than in previous elections. According to Chávez, it was his supporters staying at home that gave the victory to No. A majority of voters may like the rowdy former paratrooper, but apparantly many don't like restrictions on private property or socialist school curricula.

If Chávez was gallant in defeat, the opposition was a humble winner. General Raúl Baduel, once Chávez' confidant, now a major opponent, said the result knew no "winners or losers." He insisted a constitution "is not something one half of the population can impose on the other half." Baduel suggested a (another!) constitutional assemblee might be a good idea. Ricardo Gutiérrez, whose Podemos party has supported Chávez at every turn except for this referendum, called for a change of course. "We don't want the president to see this as a defeat but as an opinion of the people, asking him to change his politics and his personal behaviour when it comes to governing the country." Reconciliation and end to the divisive politics was what many opposition leaders were calling for.

Despite Baduel's words, this referendum did see a clear winner. University students spearheaded the opposition to the constitutional reform right from the word go. Their largely peaceful demonstrations and calls for freedom of expression captivated many in Venezuela, who had lost faith in the politicians of the centre and right. Besides, the fact that most of the students were no more than 14 years old when Chávez was first elected, meant they could hardly be accused of belonging to the corrupt generation of pre-Chavez party politics. A number of the most outspoken leaders of the student movement have become household names in Venezuela. Yon Goicoechea and Freddy Guevara hand out autographs in the street and teenage girls beg to have their photo taken with them.

"Those kids deserve a statue," the daily La Verdad wrote in its front page editorial yesterday. "They overcame insults and detractions by looking to the future. That is an example for all to follow, especially for those that stayed at home and expected defeat."

If that kind of jubilation reflects the positive role played by the youth in this campaign, it's also a sore reminder of the bankrupcy of Venezuela's elite. Most voters wouldn't consider the likes of former presidential candidate Manuel Rosales any better than Chávez, let alone the Adeccos and Copei that came before him.

Any more good news to come out this. Well, yes. Curbing Chávez' attempts to increase his grip on the state is not only good for Venezuelan democracy. It's also good for Chávez' allies. Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador often suffer abuse at the hands of the international media by being lumped into the same basket as their Bolivarian chum. They have little to gain if the Western world considers Chávez an autocrat and a tyrant. That means onlookers will be expecting them to do the same, no matter how hard they deny it. With democracy alive and healthy in the Caribbean nation, they are a little freeer to trot down their own revolutionary paths. Until the next referendum, of course.