FARC meet Swiss, French negotiators

El Especatador reports that FARC commander Alfonso Cano is meeting with a delegation of French and Swiss negotiators, entrusted with brokering a humanatarian agreement with the guerrilla group. According to the report the Colombian government has okayed the talks, which have been going on for the past three days.

It's the first time talks are taking place since the death of the former guerrilla commanders Manuel Marulanda and Raul Reyes in March of this year.

Meanwhile, those laptops have been spilling their binary guts again. The possibility, suggested in an email by Reyes contained in one of the computers, that a senior FARC commander might be applying for Nicaraguan citizenship was confirmed by the Managua daily La Prensa. Aided by the Nicarguan painter Genaro Lugo and by an insider, the guerrilla contact Alberto Bermudez managed to get a Nicaraguan ID-card in "record time."

The news comes amid souring relations between Colombia and the Nicaragua of Daniel Ortega, often accused of supporting the FARC.

ELN: Let's not forget these guys

With so much talk about blows being dealt to the FARC and the death of their leader Manuel Marulanda, you'd almost forget there's another guerrilla group in Colombia sowing death and destruction. FYI, the ELN, or Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional is still alive and killing.

Less inclined to forget them are the family and friends of the 240 people the ELN is still holding hostage. Some of them for over eight years.

The Fundación País Libre - an organisation dedicated to the victims of kidnappings - is touring Colombia with a video about the ELN and there criminal practices. In the past ten years they have kidnapped around 3,500 people, 145 of which died while in captivity according to Pais Libre.

Peace talks between the government and the ELN in Cuba broke down last year and an attempt to restart them in April hit a brick wall when the guerrilla's negotiator was dismissed by the ELN high command. On May 28th the ELN published a letter on their website suggesting they would like to work together with FARC. That news came only a few months after John Carlin reported that the two guerrilla groups were fighting each other in Venezuela for control over the local drug trade.

If you're in Bogota on July 10, you can catch the video there.

Lat-Am Watch: Sibling rivalry Cuban style

There’s dissention in the ranks as Fidel speaks out

For the Buenos Aires Herald.

The brothers Castro were long thought to be two sides of the same revolutionary coin, with Fidel’s charisma and intellect complemented by his younger brother’s ruthless zeal. At least that was always the case during the half century or so that the elder Castro was in charge. But since Raúl took over as president in February of this year there are clues that a rift between the two is starting to develop.


The first indication of sibling rivalry came on Friday. In one of his op-ed pieces for the government website Cubadebate the convalescent ex-president wrote that the EU’s lifting of sanctions against Cuba was an “enormous hypocrisy.” That duplicity, wrote Fidel, was highlighted even more by the EU’s Returns Directive that allows for the incarcerating and deporting of illegal immigrants.

That is certainly not the official Cuban line. Only hours before the column appeared, Foreign minister Felipe Pérez Roque had said that the bloc’s decision was “a step in the right direction.” The fact that the column was only published online – and not in the Communist Party paper Granma – is remarkable in a country where only a small elite have access to Internet. In lends credibility to the idea that his opinion wasn’t officially sanctioned and possibly directed at those in power. Castro signs off by writing, “I don’t mean to bother (anyone), but I live and think.”

Then came the most surprising announcement. On Saturday Fidel wrote on the same website that “I am not now, nor will I ever be at the head of any group or faction. Therefore, it can't follow that there is infighting in the party.” Surprising, because no one had ever suggested he was at the head of any faction.

A denial by any politician is reason for suspicion. But when a semi-retired communist dictator denies something before it has even been implied, then you know there’s something up.

Oscar Espinosa Chepe, an economist and prominent Cuban dissident agrees. “The fact that Fidel is saying there are no divisions, underscores the fact that there are because he’s referring to something that officially no Cuban knows about,” Chepe told Mexico’s Reforma. He said he felt sure there were “discrepancies within the heart of the party,” and that some people in the Communist Party were trying to use the “figure of the leader.”

In Saturday's column a huffy Castro continues on the defensive, writing that his wasn’t a “diatribe against Europe,” but that he was “simply telling the truth. And if that offends, that’s not my fault.”

If Raul and Fidel differ over anything, then it has to be the economy. The changes the younger Castro has made to the way in which Cuba’s state-driven economy is run since taking over are what’s bothering his elder brother.

Those changes include allowing Cubans to purchase consumer goods such as DVD’s, computers and mobile phones and spending a night in one of the tourist hotels. Of course, these measures only benefit those Cubans whose income is far above the monthly average of 20 dollars.

Fidel Castro has always opposed liberalizing the economy, precisely to prevent these kind of visible discrepancies between Cubans. Only at the very last did he give in to legislating for tourism and small businesses in the early 1990’s after the stop to Soviet subsidies disintegrated Cuba’s economy.

Therefore, although he doesn’t say as much it’s clear to many that Fidel is annoyed over his sibling steering the island along a different course. Another moderate Cuban dissident, Manuel Cuesta Morúa put it like this; “Every time he possibly can, Fidel will show his opposition to these measures... that suppose a ‘return’ of the market.”

Fidel, Morúa told El País, represents the unbending line within the Communist Party, while Raúl heads the pragmatic group that hold that it’s necessary to introduce reforms that benefit the people and reactivate the economy, to make sure the revolution lives. It’s that dichotomy which is why some hinted-at freedoms – such as the possibility to travel abroad – are taking so long to implement, Morúa suggests.

However, none of this means that Fidel is somehow stifling what would otherwise be a free and open society in a matter of months. Not by a long shot. Raúl may be looking to invigorate the economy, but that doesn’t mean he’s headed down the path of perestroika.

Instead he is applying a business model that yielded positive results in the army as defence minister for 50 years. It’s called perfeccionamiento empresarial – perfecting the state company system. What it means is modern management and accounting practices adapted to improve the state-run company, not to privatize it.

“Perfeccionamiento does not aim to turn Cuba into a China or Taiwan in terms of level of development and integration into globalisation. In the end, the objective is political,” Frank Mora, a Cuba expert at the War College in Washington told the Financial Times.

The idea is to defuse the pressure of rising expectations and increasing food costs by implementing some very specific reforms in the way state-businesses operate. By foreseeing in the material needs of the Cuban people, the government hopes they’ll be lulled into apathy, not caring about things like democracy.

If that theory holds – and China’s content nouveau riche would suggest it might – then the Cuban people have an unlikely ally in their former president. For years the only thing that stood between the islanders and their freedom was the rigid consensus within the ruling elite. Ironically, now it’s Fidel Castro who’s doing more damage to party unity than any dissident ever could.

Bolivia; the plot thickens

In a new twist in the ongoing power struggle between the Bolivian government and the country's richest provinces, Evo Morales has said he will sue five of the prefects for not abiding by the recall referendum. The five regional leaders have declared they won't be participating in the August 10 nationwide ballot.

On that day, all 9 prefects as well as Morales and his vice-president Alvaro García Linera are supposed to submit themselves to the popular vote via referendum, making it only the fifth referendum to be held this year.

On Sunday the gas-rich region of Tarija voted in favour of more autonomy in another ad hoc ballot, becoming the fourth region to do so in the past two months. Strengthened by this semblance of popular support, five prefects have now decided not to participate in the recall referendum and are instead calling for general elections. The one-term rule means that Morales would no longer be able to stand.

The beautiful irony of the whole thing is that the recall referendum, although originally dreamed up by the Morales camp, was actually passed in the senate by the opposition parties. It was they who thought it would be the ideal stick with which to beat the president. Now their allies in the provinces are having nothing to do with it, leaving the Podemos senators looking like fools.

Does any of this get Bolivia any closer to home? You tell me.

Photo: Voting in Tarija. www.Infobae.com.

Ecuador's Acosta steps down

Alberto Acosta confirmed his resignation as chair of Ecuador's constitutional assembly today, fueling the idea that the whole project is somehow doomed. Acosta stepped down because he felt that the set deadline for the constitution was too soon to allow for a proper draft that would represent "all Ecuadoreans."

His resignation could send the assembly into a crisis, which is precisely what the hard liners in the opposition - such as Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot - would like. On the other hand, it may help to wrap up the process once and for all and allow Ecuador's politicians to get around to the more menial business of actually running the country.

Acosta - a socialist from an upper-middle class background - was always deemed to be more or less principled and it seemed his honesty somehow vouched for the new constitution. However his insisting that the assembly take its time didn't go down well with hasty President Correa and his PAIS party, who want the constitution approved before the whole idea becomes too unpopular. The more it drags on, the more people get the feeling that they are in for more of the same corrupt parliamentarians that they voted to get rid off in the first place.

With Acosta no longer at the wheel, that feeling will only be enhanced. Suffice to say that when he resigned, Acosta was flanked not by his fellow party members, but by his wife and by León Roldós, the former presidential candidate and a one of only a handful of respected politicians alive in Ecuador.

Photo El Comercio

Foiled "assassination attempt" against Morales

Police arrested two men with a rifle in the province of Santa Cruz, who they say were planning to kill Bolivian president Evo Morales during his visit there. The men were arrested at the airport and, according to a government minister, there are "clear indications" of an assassination plan. The two men are said be members of the Unión Juvenil Cruceña, a vehemently anti-government group based in Santa Cruz.

It's the second reported alleged attempt against a Latin American president in as many weeks. On June 12 police in Ecuador arrested 4 suspects they say were plotting to kill president Rafael Correa, although Correa later suggested the whole thing may be a scam.

These are troubling reports which only add to the heightened tension in both countries as their respective governments make ham-fisted attempts t0 "refound" their nations.

Bolivia votes in a bizarre recall referendum on August 10 involving the president, the vice-president and the 9 provincial prefects. Morales may well win, but only with a small majority while several prefects could lose their job, meaning even more elections. The whole thing is only likely to add to the ongoing polarisation without resolving anything.

In a report released on Thursday, The International Crisis Groups suggests postponing the vote, which sounds sensible.

Flip flopping penguin

Former president Néstor Kirchner has been caught with his pants down.

We know him nowadays as a furious defender of the high export tariffs on grains at the root of this ongoing farmers' strike.

But as you can see in this 2002 video, he wasn't always in favour of taxing the land. In this clip he says that as far he's concerned the controversial "retenciones" only serve to "bankroll the bureaucracy in the capital." Of course, at the time he was still campaigning....

The Hezbollah connection

Now it's the Treasury department linking Venezuela to Hezbollah...

I wonder if Chávez will ask them to disarm as well?

Farmers still doubtful

President Cristina Fernández' promise to send the controversial grains tax to a vote in Congress did little to belay the fears of Argentina's farmers. The big question is whether it will be a closed case of "yes" or "no" over the bill or if parliamentarians will be able to debate the measure at the heart of this 100-day dispute between farmers and the Kirchner administration.

Farmers' leaders, like Alfredo de Angeli, insist that if the bill is 'locked' then the whole excercise is pointless, because the Kirchners have a majority in both houses and can easily push it through. What's needed, they insist, is a debate on the issue in which everybody has their say.

The mass Kirchenerite rally is still on for this afternoon, with Cristina as the only scheduled speaker. If she rips into the farmers again - as her husband did yesterday - there's every chance the strike will be back on again tomorrow.

Argentina breakthrough: Grains tax to be debated in Congress

Argentina's president Cristina Kirchner decided to do what she should probably have done months ago - to submit the controversial grains tax to congress. It was the obvious thing to do, especially because the government has a majority in both houses and therefore nothing to fear.

The imposition of a sliding-scale tax on grain exports can still be implemented, but at least this way the niceties of democracy are observed and everybody gets a chance to have their say.

We'll have to see how the farmers take the news.

Meanwhile, the government still plans to go ahead with its controversial political rally on the Plaza de Mayo tomorrow.

Kirchner sees "extorsionists" around every bend

London-based Argentine Leonardo Boix has a good commentary piece on CiF about the Argentina farmers' strike which is edging this country towards the brink of collapse again.

Ex-president Néstor Kirchner, spouse of the current president, has just held a surreal press conference in which he accused the farmers of extorsion, once again. For the first time ever, Kirchner answered journalists questions, cracking jokes and telling one reporter not "to be afraid" as his supporters jeered in the background.

In the past few days as the conflict worsened, Kirchner has replaced his wife Cristina as the face of the government. He even went so far as to join a demonstration of government supporters on the Plaza de Mayo on Saturday, moments after the same supporters drove off a group of peaceful protesters with sticks and fists.

The dispute has morphed from a relatively simple confrontation between the government and angry farmers over a tax-hike, into a conflict between "Peronists and oligarchs" charged with historic symbolism

Yesterday at around 10 pm I ran into a group of young men and women armed with sticks standing at one corner of the Plaza de Mayo. They said they were "protecting the square from golpistas" - i.e. those supposedly planning a coup d'etat. This square they said, was the historic plaza of the people, where Peronism had celebrated its most important victories.

Elsewhere in town, middle class families were marching in support of the farmers, banging pots and pans. These - the suspected golpistas - made sure to stay clear of the Plaza de Mayo after what happened on Saturday.

Negotiations, let alone a solution to the dispute seem further away than ever as we approach the 100 day-mark.

Photo Tobias Bruns - http://www.g-neun.de/ausstellung/portenidadfotos.htm

Lat-Am Watch: Bolivian uproar at EU directive, violent Venezuela

Forcing FIFA to abandon its ban on playing international soccer matches at high altitude is one thing. But whether the Bolivian President Evo Morales can also single-handedly dissuade the European Union from locking up illegal immigrants or sending them home, remains to be seen. If he doesn’t though, it won’t be for lack of trying.

“European citizens arrived in Latin and North America en masse, without visas or conditions imposed on them by the authorities. They were simply welcomed, and continue to be in Latin America,” wrote Morales in an op-ed piece for the Guardian yesterday, in an attempt to explain his rejection at the EU’s proposal to incarcerate undocumented immigrants for up to 18 months. The vote by the European parliament on the so-called “return directive” is scheduled for later this week.

Morales’ words are more than welcome. The EU’s hypocrisy in matters of immigration deserves derision, as does the scandalous way in which migrants from Latin America, Africa and Asia are treated.

The oft-vented notion in countries such as Spain, Britain and The Netherlands that they are as wealthy as they are through the isolated toil of a select group of nationals and that their well-being owes nothing to the drudgery of the rest of the planet means denying the very foundations of the global trade that created that wealth.

Buying and selling, not having, is what generates prosperity. If not Angola would be the world’s richest country. To keep producing wealth freedom of trade and freedom of migration should go hand-in-hand.

The fact is, in the near future the aging Europeans are more likely than ever to need the extra workforce, while ever-tighter regulations force EU businesses and farmers to settle in more compliant parts of the globe. Prosperous Europe is and always will be a joint effort.

So Morales has a point when he chastises the Europeans for “infringing the rights of immigrants,” while maintaining “the great majority of migrants contribute to, rather than exploit, this [European] prosperity.”

However, the Bolivian president has linked his opposition to the EU directive to two ultimatums, which threaten to upset Bolivia and it’s neighbours more than they do the self-absorbed Europeans.

The first is a threat to demand visas for all EU travelers to Bolivia on the basis of reciprocity. Like Brazil, Bolivia already charges US citizens a hefty 100 dollars to enter the country. To implement similar conditions for Europeans would only serve to irritate travelers even more and worsen already strained relations while probably snuffing the nascent tourist industry in the process.

The other ultimatum is a lot more serious. Morales says he will sabotage the emerging trade deal between the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) and the EU. That would mean seriously embarrassing Colombia and Peru, the two nations most in favour of a deal. Ecuador, the fourth CAN member is still ambivalent, but does want to strengthen ties with Europe.

Morales’ opposition to free trade agreements with the US has already led to clashes between
him and president Alan Garcia of neighbouring Peru. Last week he challenged García to debate the benefits of such a deal, which Peru is desperately seeking.

Of course, Evo Morales’ Bolivia was never much in favour of trade deals and liberalizing markets – they go against the grain of his 21st century socialism. But to pull out now would effectively render the already blunted CAN completely obsolete. It would force Colombia and Peru to look for bi-lateral agreements with Europe as they are trying to do with the US and relegate Latin American integration to the back burner once again.

For someone so convinced of the enormous advantages migrants and trade have brought to Europe, Morales plans to “go it alone” sound slightly irrational.

*******
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, violence has gone from being a menace to society to a serious threat against democracy. On Sunday the body of journalist Javier García was found stabbed to death in his apartment in Caracas. García worked for the RCTV television network that had it’s licensed revoked by president Hugo Chávez last year.

Although police have yet to reveal a suspect or a possible motive, Garcia is the second high profile journalist to be murdered in as many weeks. On June 2 gunmen killed Pierre Fould Gerges, the vice-president of the Caracas-based business daily Reporte de la Economía, a crime which is also still under investigation.

Journalists aren’t the only ones to suffer. The homicide rate in Venezuela has soared to 45 murders per 100,000 inhabitants according to Jorge Briceño Leon of the Venezuelan Observatory for Violence. In comparison, the rate in Brazil is 20, in Mexico 14,7 and Argentina around 9.

“The rate of murders has doubled in ten years, while the number of homicides has actually tripled,” Briceño told El Nacional newspaper on Sunday. Last year saw a horrifying 13,200 violent killings in Venezuela, making it the primary cause of death for men aged between 15 and 24. This year is looking to be similarly gruesome with well over 3,000 murders in the first five months.

Since Chávez came to power in 1998 Venezuela has gone from being no more dangerous than comparable countries such as Mexico and Brazil to suffering on a par with the likes of gang-ridden El Salvador or Guatemala. From insecure to downright life-threatening. As a result crime has become Venezuelans number one cause for concern. As for Chávez, if he plans to win the November regional elections, it should be his main headache as well.

Another Dutch FARC soldier

It turns out there's another Dutch girl fighting for the Colombian guerrilla group FARC, besides Tanja Nijmeijer. The woman's code name is Alexandra and she works as a translater for the senior FARC commander Mono Jojoy, according to a story in El Tiempo newspaper.

El Tiempo got the information from two 17-year-old guerrilla fighters who recently deserted. The two girls claimed to have met Alexandra as well as Tanja, which means the Dutch girl whose diary was found last year after a military raid is still alive.

If you read Dutch, there's more on my other blog.

Ecuador turns down ALBA

Ecuador's president Rafael Correa has decided not to join the Venezuela-led group of nations known as ALBA. The bloc, whose other member are Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, is supposed to be an answer to US influence in the region. In reality it does little to boost economic integration and instead serves as a vehicle for Venezuelan aid and influence.

Ecuador, having oil of it's own, is in no dire need of Chávez's crude. On the other hand the country does want to strenghen economic ties with the US, just not via a Free Trade agreement, at least according to analyst Hugo Barber.

Also, Correa is facing looming defeat in a referendum to approve a new constitution. He's even less likely to win that poll if his government is percieved to be under the thumb of Hugo Chávez.

Finance flip flop follows

As if furious backpedaling on the FARC and the "Gestapo Law" wasn't enough, president Hugo Chávez has also just revoked a few of his most despised financial measures of the many that are strangling Venezuela's economy.

As of last night, restrictions on the conversion of currency have been lifted. That means that companies can access dollars to import much needed capital goods, although the limit has been set at $ 50,000.

Taxes on financial transactions would also be lifted, Chávez announced, claiming the country was making more than enough from oil. He also promised no more new taxes till the end of the year.

If you're thinking all of this sounds like the wriggling of a president afraid of losing another election, the you're probably right. Venezuela votes in crucial regional elections on November 23, which should explains some of back flipping at least.

In fact, Chávez is so cynical that the conversion restrictions have only been lifted temporarily until December 31 of this year. If companies are seen to be seeking to buy more than their fair share of dollars the decree will be revoked, the president promised.

Chávez: Why back FARC when you've got Hezbollah

Just as he was starting to polish up his reputation as a backer of terrorists, Húgo Chávez finds his leap from the frying pan has landed him in the raging inferno of Middle Eastern politics.

Venezuela is recruiting young men for combat training with Hezbollah, at least according to the journalist Patricia Poleo of the Venezuelan paper El Nuevo Pais.

According Ms Poleo, (who provides names but no real proof, nor does she name her source) Venezuelan vice-minister of the Interior Tarek El Ayssami, and other Venezuelans of Arab descent are seeking out young Muslim Venezuelans to train them in Lebanon and prepare them for asymmetrical warfare against the US.

There are also training camps in Venezuela, she writes, located in Monagas state, Maturin district. Miranda state, Los Teques, at a location called El Jari. Trujillo state, El Paramo. Falcon state, Churuguara, Sierra de San Luis. Yaracuy state, Yumare.

You can read the full translation of the article over on Fausta's Blog.

FARC & freezin' school kids with Kiwi FM

I Spoke to Kiwi FM's Wammo this afternoon on Chávez' surprising call to FARC to disband and on Argentine school kids wearing blankets to a demonstration in protest of freezing classrooms.

Lugo fumes at the press

The controversial nephew has finally quit. Angel Pompeyo Maidana Lugo, who's uncle Fernando Lugo was elected president of Paraguay on April 20, has stepped down from his job as environmental consultant at Paraguay's Yacyretá hydroelectric damn after controversy arose over his appointment so soon after his uncle's election win. Carlos Alberto Franco, the brother of vice-president-elect Federico Franco, also quit his brand new job at the damn.

Although Ángel Pompeyo was forced into quitting by his uncle, according to Ultima Hora, Fernando Lugo was in no mood to discuss his decision with reporters this morning. As he walked down the Congress steps he lashed out "if the dictatorial press will let me, I'd like to get through."

Perhaps a poor choice of words for someone who was elected to bring about the end of 60 years of one-party rule in impoverished Paraguay. Add to that the fact that his victory was due in no small part to the relentless pressure of the media on the incumbent Colorado Party, and you can see why Lugo isn't getting of to such a great start.

Photo Ultima Hora.

FARC flip flop for real?

Curious Chavez U-turn on Colombian guerrillas

Latam Watch

There was always an erratic side to Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez – his unpredictability is part of his undeniable charisma - but events over the past few days would suggest that far from whimsical, he has either become soberingly sensible or completely unhinged.

Chávez meets FARC commander Iván Marquez (left). Photo Diario del Horizonte.

On Saturday he announced he was withdrawing a decree to overhaul to the intelligence services. That decree, announced only days earlier by the same Chávez, would have turned Venezuela into a police state, allowing for the use of anonymous witnesses, secret evidence and blurring the distinction between external threats and political dissent.

Severely criticized and dubbed the “Gestapo Law” by Venezuela’s media, the crisp Bill for Intelligence Services and Counterintelligence was revoked by its instigator, who suddenly called it “indefensible.”

The most stunning U-turn, however, on the part of the Bolivarian came on Sunday, when he called on Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces or FARC to free all its hostages “in exchange for nothing” and disband. AP reports described Chávez comments as “uncharacteristic” – baffling is more like it.

Only a few months ago, he was defending the FARC’s “political project” and systematically referring to the around 800 hostages the guerrillas are holding as “retained” or “political prisoners.” But on Sunday he called them simply “prisoners” and insisted, “an armed guerrilla movement is out of place in Latin America in this day and age.”

Yet, according to Colombian interpretation of the documents found on the now notorious computers of FARC commander Raul Reyes, Chávez was sponsoring this so-called out-of-date movement to the tune of 300 million dollars. What’s more, only this same – bizarre - weekend Colombia said it had captured a Venezuelan national guard officer carrying 40,000 AK-47 assault rifle cartridges believed to be intended for the leftist guerrillas. Caracas has confirmed that the man is a member of the armed forces but claims he was framed.

So what’s going on? Why this sudden about-face from a man who until recently was advocating for international recognition for the FARC as an irregular army.

First of all, both Chávez and the FARC have suffered more than a few blows in the past few months. The guerrilla famously lost three commanders in three weeks in March, although the death of Manuel Marulanda, the long time leader, wasn’t made public until a fortnight ago.

Apart from that desertions are constant, as the Colombian army has stepped up its persecution of the rebels. Besides, Reyes’ computers blew the lid on numerous FARC collaborators and supply lines.

As for Chávez, his popularity has been sliding ever since losing a referendum in December. Since then he has faced protests over new legislation and his crackdown on the media as well as more serious rumblings among the poor over inflation and food shortages. An important detail: 80 percent of Venezuelans disapprove of his dealings with the FARC.

Also not to be overlooked, Colombia and Venezuela are economically intertwined. Trade between the two is worth six billion dollars a year. Rumours that Colombia could cut off the supply of goods as basic as eggs or meat is enough to send Venezuelan consumers into hoarding mode and does little for Chavez popularity or for state-subsidized grocery stores.

It could be that reality is catching up with the former para-trooper and with the army of kidnappers he once sympathized with.

The Caracas Chronicles blog, which has been on Chavez’ case since 2002, suggested that the whole thing may well be an orchestrated attempt by both sides to deal with this reality. “Having Chávez publicly call on them to release all hostages and demobilize could save face on both sides: FARC could argue that, without
Venezuelan patronage, the "struggle" is not sustainable while Chávez could then take credit for demobilizing them” wrote chronicler Quico.

Another alternative, according to the blog, is that Chavez’ speech was purposely deceptive and that he secretely plans to continue bankrolling the insurgents. That view coincides with that of an ex-ally of the Venezuelan president, Rafael Simón Jiménez.

Jiménez, a former speaker of the National Assembly, told the BBCMundo correspondent that he didn’t believe Chávez would end his “strategic alliance” with FARC. All that the Bolivarian was looking to do, he said, was “put on a respectable face (lavarse la cara) vis-a-vis the international community.”

Jimenez suggested that the FARC, after suffering severe military blows, was looking to reinvent itself a political movement and gain power through the ballot box.
However, that’s seems highly unlikely, at least for now. Not in the least because the last time the FARC tried a similar strategy, it cost them dearly. Literally thousands of members of the Union Patriotica party were culled by paramilitaries in the late 1980’s.

It’s undeniable though, that there’s something in the air. Chávez’ comments, be they an abrupt U-turn, a strategic withdrawal or even an insincere veil, have added to the momentum already underway since Raúl Reyes was slain on March 1.

Luis Eliado Pérez, a senator who was kidnapped by the FARC and maintains strange ties with his raptors, said yesterday he expects the guerrillas to announce the release of at least 4 hostages in the coming week. One of them, he claims, could be the French-Colombian Ingrid Betancourt, who is feared to be very ill. Let’s hope his assertions are correct and that this really is the beginning of the end.

Talking FARC to Kiwis

Here's the audio from my last chat with Kiwi FM in New Zealand. I need to find a less obtrusive media player than this one from Esnips. But to do that I need a server that will host my mp3 files for free. Any tips?

Paraguay: Same old, same old

Fernando Lugo, who won the Paraguayan presidency in April on the promise of ending decades of corruption by the incumbent Colorado party, has suffered his first setback. Both his nephew and the brother of vice-president elect Federico Franco have apparently been appointed to lucrative positions in the administration of the Yacyretá dam, one of the two bi-national hydroelectric plants which Paraguay shares with its neighbours. These massive dams have been the traditional milking-cow of corrupt Paraguayan governments.

Lugo breakfasts on the campaign trail in 2007. Photo Paul Scheltus

Angel Pompeyo Maidana Lugo is to receive a salary of between 7 and 9 million guarani or between 1750 and 2250 US dollars for environmental services, reports Ultima Hora. His appointment and that of Carlos Franco was a request of the 'transitional work group' claims the current director of the damn Paul Sarubbi. The work group's job is to prepare for the ascension of Lugo as president on August 15.

According to Mercedes Lugo, the mother of Angel and soon-to-be first lady, Yacyretá "did the right thing," by appointing her son, she told ABC Color. Curiously though, the Alliance for Change, Lugo's party, have denied the nomination and say they know nothing about it.

Angel Maidana's uncle and long-time Colorado party member, Pompeyo Lugo (photo, with moustache) also defended his nephew's appointment saying he should be earning "two to three times as much."

Both former bishop Fernando Lugo and Federico Franco are abroad and have not yet commented.

Human rights investigations reopen

Human rights are back on the agenda in the Southern Cone with two high profile investigations reopened in the last two days.

The first is here in Argentina on the two French nuns - Alice Domon and Leonie Duquet - murdered during the last military dictatorship and the disappearance of Azucena Villaflor, the then leader of the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo human rights group. The man accused of those crimes is Alfredo Astiz, known as the "Angel of Death," who infiltrated the Mothers' group by pretending to sympathize with their cause. Astiz is also held responsible for the kidnapping of a Swedish girl, Dagmar Hagelin, who later disappeared.

The second case is in Chile were a judge has reopened the investigation into the murder of legendary folk singer Victor Jara. He was killed in 1973 in Santiago's football stadium in the early days of the Pinochet dictatorship. Before he was shot, soldiers broke his hands so that he couldn't play guitar, witnesses claim. His murder has become a symbol in the struggle to bring Chile's human rights violators to justice.

Giving democracy a run for its money

Bolivia seems intent on proving Winston Churchill wrong. The war-time prime minister’s reluctant observation that democracy is the worst of all forms of government bar the rest, is being given a serious run for its money by the turbulent Andean nation.

Photo AP

Less than a month after the province of Santa Cruz approved it’s own unconstitutional referendum on greater autonomy, two other regions have done the same. All three are hoping that the popular will can break that of their elected representatives in La Paz.

On Sunday the provinces of Beni and Pando voted on autonomy statutes of their own. As in the case of Santa Cruz, the statutes were approved by a big margin (80 percent in Beni, 82 percent in Pando).

Next up is Tarija on June 22, which is also expected to endorse the autonomy statute, hoping to gain greater control over the gas reserves under its vineyards. Then the four regions that make up the so-called ‘half moon’ expect that with the people’s endorsement they can cajole president Evo Morales into delegating important decisions and control over resources to the provinces.

Despite the convincing appearance of the results, there are a few reasons to suggest that the half moon is still a long way from its goal of autonomy. First of all, there’s the turnout. As with the Santa Cruz vote, it was far from convincing.

Abstention was high, as most of those who opposed the referendum simply stayed at home. In Beni 34,5 percent, in Pando 46,5, according to La Razón newspaper yesterday. That’s dangerously close to the 50 percent minimum required for the referenda to be ‘legitimate’, in line with the standards set by the very government detractors who drafted them.

As a result, according to political analyst Ricardo Paz, greater independence for the four regions is not as “irreversible” as Ernesto Suarez, the prefect of Beni, suggested on Sunday night.

“I don’t think the results of the referenda will radically change the government’s perception of what it’s losing with the autonomy process,” Paz said, adding that neither did he feel that the results would give the autonomists such a definitive impulse as to shift the balance of powers and make for a changed negotiation scenario.

Another reason for the four prefects to rein in their optimism is the recall referendum scheduled for August 10. That’s right, democracy triumphs with yet another referendum.

This time around it’s nationwide and approved by both chambers of congress. At stake are the presidency, the vice-presidency and the jobs of all nine prefects. The election was called into being by the opposition party Podemos, who hoped to use the gushing anti-La Paz sentiment to clobber president Evo Morales’ with.

However, the whole thing may just as easily backfire. Morales has support among the poor of all provinces not to mention in the over-populated barrios of El Alto and La Paz. Polls suggest he still has a 52 percent approval rating. Meanwhile, separatist prefects, such as Manfred Reyes Villa of Cochabamba, may easily see themselves evicted from power.

Win or lose, neither Morales or the rebel prefects are doing much to make Bolivia a more stable country. With ordinary Bolivians caught between the catastrophic effects of La Niña and the daily woes of rising inflation things aren’t likely to improve in the short term. If, or perhaps when, the situation comes to a head, it’ll take more than another referendum to get Bolivia back on track.

***

Unlike Bolivia, Peru has managed to give the international headlines a wide berth in recent months. Until last week that is, when accusations over the manipulation of official figures left the government panting on the ropes.

The country has seen strong economic growth for the past nine years – last year as much as 9 percent – mainly thanks to the mining boom coupled with smart economic policies. President Alan Garcia, partly blamed for Peru’s hyperinflation in the early eighties, has shown himself to be a much more cautious leader in his second term.

However, his administration is suffering from the same malady as that of his predecessor, Alejandro Toledo. For while Peru’s economy soars, Garcia’s approval ratings have plummeted to around 25 percent.

The reason is simple enough. Despite the bullish figures, Peru has been unable to improve the conditions of the poor, which make up almost half the population. Especially in the Andean south, where up to 70 percent of the people live in impoverished conditions. There, many reject the policies of Garcia as only beneficial to Lima’s middle and upper classes.

There was reason for rejoicing, therefore, when the INEI, the government’s statistics bureau, announced a stunning drop in poverty rates last week. Poverty had dipped below 40 percent the government announced triumphantly, down from 45 percent last year and almost 49 in 2005.

“There is a virtuous circle. The economy is growing and it is starting to generate jobs of better and better quality, and that is reaching, little by little, the whole country,” an elated Felipe Jaramillo, a regional director for the World Bank, told reporters.

That may have been slightly too jubilant for what was to come next. In fact, it’s starting to look as if INEI should be renamed INDEC, in honour of Argentina’s untrustworthy official statistics bureau.

The figures have been criticized from all sides. “Exaggerated and not very credible,” was the reaction of former president Toledo, an opinion echoed in many opposition circles.

More serious though, were the accusations Farid Matuk, Peru’s leading authority on statistics and a former head of INEI. “The numbers have been hammered. They’ve performed a liposuction on the statistics to come up with a good result,” he told La Republica newspaper yesterday.

The accusations are serious and hit the government where it hurts most. It’s apparent inability funnel wealth to those who most need it does not bode well for the future. Alan Garcia must find a way reach the poor and avoid perceived duplicity or the memory of his second term in office will be no better than that of his first.