Lat-Am Watch: Poll by proxy in Brazil
Serra trumps Lula in local election battle
Brazilians in 30 major cities went to the polls on Sunday to elect mayors in run-off elections, after the nationwide municipal vote on October 5. The outcome was a clear victory for one man – and he didn’t even have to take part to win.
José Serra, the governor of Sao Paulo, emerged as the favourite to succeed Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva as president in 2010, thanks to a political gamble which paid off in Sunday’s ballot. By mastering the complicated world of Brazilian local politics, where coalitions are constantly changing, Serra has come out on top of this year’s elections.
The victory of his former deputy Gilberto Kassab in the Sao Paulo city ballot on Sunday is due in large part to Serra’s handiwork, an effort that should pay off nicely in the next presidential elections. It’s also a firm kick in the teeth for Lula’s Workers Party, which invested heavily to regain a foothold in the city of 8 million voters.
José Serra is an icon of the social democrat PSDB party, which he helped found along with former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso back in 1988. He would have liked to succeed his mentor Cardoso in the presidency and ran against the trade-union leader Lula da Silva in 2002, losing in a now historic election.
Since then he has focused on Sao Paulo, winning the 2004 mayoral elections against Marta Suplicy of the PT. When the 2006 presidential elections rolled around he expected his party to let him to run again. Instead the PSDB picked Serra’s rival and then Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin to try his luck. Serra decided not to fight the nomination and chose the “consolation prize”; succeeding Alckmin in the governor’s palace, an election that was as good as won.
In hindsight, the turnout of events favoured Serra over Alckmin. For although the first round of the 2006 presidential election was undecided, the bespectacled Alckmin was no match for Lula’s massive appeal and lost by more than 20 percent in the run-off, amazingly getting less votes in the second round than in the first.
Meanwhile, Serra moved swiftly to fill his rivals post, after an easily won election in October of that year. In his stead in the Sao Paolo mayor’s office he left his deputy, the engineer and economist Gilberto Kassab of the centre-right Democratas party (DEM).
When this year’s municipal elections rolled around, Kassab made it clear he wanted to hang to his job. To do so he had to take on former mayor Mrs. Suplicy and none other than Geraldo Alckmin. Serra saw to it that at least part of the PSDB backed Kassab. He also managed to get Kassab the backing of Brazil’s largest party, the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB).
That not only stunned Alckmin but left the PT reeling as well. Lula’s government forms a coalition with PMDB on a national level and relies heavily on the party’s national presence for support in local elections.
Still, getting Kassab elected remained a long shot. In May of this year the polls put both Alckmin and Suplicy at 30 percent of the vote each, with the incumbent mayor trailing with only 13 percent. Most expected Alckmin to win a second round against Suplicy, thereby strengthening his chances to face-off against Lula’s candidate in 2010.
However, by knocking out Alckmin in the first round, Kassab secured the backing of a large part the PSDB voters for the second round against Suplicy.
The candidate for the Democratas has introduced a number of popular measures in the world’s second largest city. Not least, the controversial decision to ban almost all outdoor advertising and severely restrict signposts, which brought him the anger of the advertising community and the jubilance of paulistas in equal measure.
So, despite president Lula and the PT putting everything they had behind Suplicy, the former mayor lost to the incumbent by 39,2 percent to 60,72 percent on Sunday.
For José Serra, that result yields huge returns for his own 2010 bid. First of all it means that Alckmin is out of the picture as a candidate. The PSDB will certainly pick the Sao Paolo governor who is backed by the city mayor as their candidate over the jobless Alckmin.
Secondly it means Serra can count on the backing of Kassab’s own party for his candidacy. To him the support of the Democratas is crucial. He hasn’t forgotten that it was an identical alliance that secured the presidency for the PSDB’s Fernando Cardoso in 1994 and 1997.
By backing a relative outsider from another party, the wily Serra has laid the foundation for his own potentially very successful candidacy in 2010. An election, need I remind you, in which president Lula is barred from running by Brazil’s Constitution.
Meanwhile, the other results in Sunday’s election have cleared up some of the haze over whom Serra might be running against. Not only is Alckmin out of the picture, but so is Suplicy who needed to win Sao Paulo to have an electoral base.
Seeing as Lula once suggested his successor might be a woman, many speculate that that only leaves his chief of staff, Dilma Roussef. However she faces opposition from within the PT, by the Sao Paulo faction and her backers in Porto Allegre just took a hit as well in these elections.
But with Lula’s popularity for surpassing that of his party, it seems likely that any candidate that enjoys his endorsement will be the one best equipped to take on the experienced José Serra.
Brazilians in 30 major cities went to the polls on Sunday to elect mayors in run-off elections, after the nationwide municipal vote on October 5. The outcome was a clear victory for one man – and he didn’t even have to take part to win.
Sao Paulo governor José Serra waves to supporters. Photo Reuters
José Serra, the governor of Sao Paulo, emerged as the favourite to succeed Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva as president in 2010, thanks to a political gamble which paid off in Sunday’s ballot. By mastering the complicated world of Brazilian local politics, where coalitions are constantly changing, Serra has come out on top of this year’s elections.
The victory of his former deputy Gilberto Kassab in the Sao Paulo city ballot on Sunday is due in large part to Serra’s handiwork, an effort that should pay off nicely in the next presidential elections. It’s also a firm kick in the teeth for Lula’s Workers Party, which invested heavily to regain a foothold in the city of 8 million voters.
José Serra is an icon of the social democrat PSDB party, which he helped found along with former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso back in 1988. He would have liked to succeed his mentor Cardoso in the presidency and ran against the trade-union leader Lula da Silva in 2002, losing in a now historic election.
Since then he has focused on Sao Paulo, winning the 2004 mayoral elections against Marta Suplicy of the PT. When the 2006 presidential elections rolled around he expected his party to let him to run again. Instead the PSDB picked Serra’s rival and then Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin to try his luck. Serra decided not to fight the nomination and chose the “consolation prize”; succeeding Alckmin in the governor’s palace, an election that was as good as won.
In hindsight, the turnout of events favoured Serra over Alckmin. For although the first round of the 2006 presidential election was undecided, the bespectacled Alckmin was no match for Lula’s massive appeal and lost by more than 20 percent in the run-off, amazingly getting less votes in the second round than in the first.
Meanwhile, Serra moved swiftly to fill his rivals post, after an easily won election in October of that year. In his stead in the Sao Paolo mayor’s office he left his deputy, the engineer and economist Gilberto Kassab of the centre-right Democratas party (DEM).
When this year’s municipal elections rolled around, Kassab made it clear he wanted to hang to his job. To do so he had to take on former mayor Mrs. Suplicy and none other than Geraldo Alckmin. Serra saw to it that at least part of the PSDB backed Kassab. He also managed to get Kassab the backing of Brazil’s largest party, the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB).
That not only stunned Alckmin but left the PT reeling as well. Lula’s government forms a coalition with PMDB on a national level and relies heavily on the party’s national presence for support in local elections.
Still, getting Kassab elected remained a long shot. In May of this year the polls put both Alckmin and Suplicy at 30 percent of the vote each, with the incumbent mayor trailing with only 13 percent. Most expected Alckmin to win a second round against Suplicy, thereby strengthening his chances to face-off against Lula’s candidate in 2010.
However, by knocking out Alckmin in the first round, Kassab secured the backing of a large part the PSDB voters for the second round against Suplicy.
The candidate for the Democratas has introduced a number of popular measures in the world’s second largest city. Not least, the controversial decision to ban almost all outdoor advertising and severely restrict signposts, which brought him the anger of the advertising community and the jubilance of paulistas in equal measure.
So, despite president Lula and the PT putting everything they had behind Suplicy, the former mayor lost to the incumbent by 39,2 percent to 60,72 percent on Sunday.
For José Serra, that result yields huge returns for his own 2010 bid. First of all it means that Alckmin is out of the picture as a candidate. The PSDB will certainly pick the Sao Paolo governor who is backed by the city mayor as their candidate over the jobless Alckmin.
Secondly it means Serra can count on the backing of Kassab’s own party for his candidacy. To him the support of the Democratas is crucial. He hasn’t forgotten that it was an identical alliance that secured the presidency for the PSDB’s Fernando Cardoso in 1994 and 1997.
By backing a relative outsider from another party, the wily Serra has laid the foundation for his own potentially very successful candidacy in 2010. An election, need I remind you, in which president Lula is barred from running by Brazil’s Constitution.
Meanwhile, the other results in Sunday’s election have cleared up some of the haze over whom Serra might be running against. Not only is Alckmin out of the picture, but so is Suplicy who needed to win Sao Paulo to have an electoral base.
Seeing as Lula once suggested his successor might be a woman, many speculate that that only leaves his chief of staff, Dilma Roussef. However she faces opposition from within the PT, by the Sao Paulo faction and her backers in Porto Allegre just took a hit as well in these elections.
But with Lula’s popularity for surpassing that of his party, it seems likely that any candidate that enjoys his endorsement will be the one best equipped to take on the experienced José Serra.
posted by PIT @ 11:33 AM
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