Lat-Am Watch: From Russia, with love

Russia smiles on regional arms race

Latam Watch for the Buenos Aires Herald.

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez kicks off a weapons shopping spree today in the Russian capital Moscow, his third in the space of three years. The visit will be the first encounter between the Venezuelan president and his counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, although naturally he'll look in on prime minister Vladimir Putin as well.


Although there's no public shopping list, the preliminary reports of what Venezuela may be buying are impressive.

In May the Russian newspaper Kommersant believed Chávez would spend 2 billion dollars on diesel-powered submarines and MI-28 combat helicopters. Yesterday, Interfax, the Moscow based news agency dampened those high strung expectations just a little. Citing an unnamed source, it claimed that the Bolivarian was interested in buying 20 Tor-M1 missile defence systems, and three Varshavyanka submarines, among others, spending a total of 1 billion dollars.

According to the Gazeta newspaper Chávez is also interested in purchasing military transport planes and regional passenger jets. Other military projects include the building of a plant for Kalashnikov assault rifles and a training centre for Venezuelan helicopter pilots

Chavez told Itar-Tass news agency he wanted to buy Russian tanks as well during the visit: "These are very modern, fast tanks," he apparently said.

In the past few years Chavez has spent around 4.4 billion dollars on Russian built weapons, making Venezuela the country's third most important client after India and China. That's saying something.

The arms deal is likely to be seen in a negative light by Washington, but then rattling the US is not something the Venezuelan president shies away from. "What Chavez likes to do is to shock, and this will create some shock in Washington,'' Riordan Roett, a professor of Latin American studies at Johns Hopkins University, told Bloomberg.

Venezuela's increasing militarization is a concern for the US and for its allies in the region, especially Colombia. Others include the Netherlands which hosts two US airbases located on the Antilles islands of Aruba and Curacao, just a stones' throw from the Venezuelan coast.

Given the events that took place in March, there's even more cause for concern. At the time a raid by Colombian soldiers on Ecuadorean soil caused an international incident which saw Chávez sending troops to the border with Colombia. Further escalation was prevented by a gathering of regional leaders in Santo Domingo.

Despite the sabre-rattling, though, war seemed unlikely at the time. It still does given the vast military superiority of Colombian troops, hardened in 40 years of jungle warfare and backed as they are by US and Israeli technology. For now, the arms purchases although worrying, are not alarming.

In the meantime of course, they serve to strengthen Russian influence in Latin America, which seems to be part of Kremlin policy, beyond simply making a killing on a spend-easy Caribbean head of state.

"The influence of Russia in Latin America is indeed being bolstered in connection with the fact that we have started to show an interest in this region," the political observer,
Vyacheslav Nikonov, told the Interfax agency.

So are we returning the Latin America of the Cold War, which suffered the rivalry of the world's two superpowers at every corner? Not for now, at least, maintains Nikonov. "There is no intention of any kind here (to harm US interests). Russia maintains contacts with current governments in contrast to the USA, which does not have relations with the leadership of those countries where they would like to see other governments."

The vice-president of Moscow's Centre of Political Research, Aleksey Makarkin, echoes that view. "Without doubt, Russia is returning to this region of the world, but in contrast to the USSR, which in its time came to Latin America with an ideological element, the actions of Russia today have political and economic elements," Makarkin told Interfax.

But while belittling the notion that Russia was jockeying for influence in the region, Makarkin makes a curious comparison. "Hugo Chavez is something of a Russian [Georgian President] Saakashvili for America. The Americans are friends with Saakashvili, we are friends with Chavez."

"There is a demonstrative element here. Seeing as America is supporting a politician who is an allergen for Russia, so by the same token Russia is acting in response and is making a political demonstration," the political expert said.

Russian presence in itself is not a bad thing. It comes at a time of greater co-operation between the so-called BRIC nations; Brazil, Russia, India and China and the possibility of improving trade prospects being brokered at the DOHA round of talks.

However, if Russia's main interest is in fuelling an arms race in Latin America, then much more caution is required. Don't forget that Russia also recently sold weapons to Colombia. It looks as if Vladimir Putin aims to get the best of both worlds, even dividing up the contacts between himself and Medvedev. The latter deals with Colombians, Putin with Chávez.

In fact, the commodities windfall of recent years, has boosted military spending across the region. Over the past four years that increase as much as 55 percent, reaching 38.4 billion dollars in 2007, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Most of those dealings are of a defensive nature. Brazil's purchase of nuclear submarine technology from France and its new warships should be seen in light of its ambitions to gain a seat at the Security Council. And protecting new found billion-barrel oil fields.

However, history has taught us that large scale arms purchases by rivalling nations have a tendency to go wrong. The March border crisis only reaffirmed that lesson. Let's hope that the class is paying attention.