Giving democracy a run for its money
Bolivia seems intent on proving Winston Churchill wrong. The war-time prime minister’s reluctant observation that democracy is the worst of all forms of government bar the rest, is being given a serious run for its money by the turbulent Andean nation.
Photo AP
Less than a month after the province of Santa Cruz approved it’s own unconstitutional referendum on greater autonomy, two other regions have done the same. All three are hoping that the popular will can break that of their elected representatives in La Paz.
On Sunday the provinces of Beni and Pando voted on autonomy statutes of their own. As in the case of Santa Cruz, the statutes were approved by a big margin (80 percent in Beni, 82 percent in Pando).
Next up is Tarija on June 22, which is also expected to endorse the autonomy statute, hoping to gain greater control over the gas reserves under its vineyards. Then the four regions that make up the so-called ‘half moon’ expect that with the people’s endorsement they can cajole president Evo Morales into delegating important decisions and control over resources to the provinces.
Despite the convincing appearance of the results, there are a few reasons to suggest that the half moon is still a long way from its goal of autonomy. First of all, there’s the turnout. As with the Santa Cruz vote, it was far from convincing.
Abstention was high, as most of those who opposed the referendum simply stayed at home. In Beni 34,5 percent, in Pando 46,5, according to La Razón newspaper yesterday. That’s dangerously close to the 50 percent minimum required for the referenda to be ‘legitimate’, in line with the standards set by the very government detractors who drafted them.
As a result, according to political analyst Ricardo Paz, greater independence for the four regions is not as “irreversible” as Ernesto Suarez, the prefect of Beni, suggested on Sunday night.
“I don’t think the results of the referenda will radically change the government’s perception of what it’s losing with the autonomy process,” Paz said, adding that neither did he feel that the results would give the autonomists such a definitive impulse as to shift the balance of powers and make for a changed negotiation scenario.
Another reason for the four prefects to rein in their optimism is the recall referendum scheduled for August 10. That’s right, democracy triumphs with yet another referendum.
This time around it’s nationwide and approved by both chambers of congress. At stake are the presidency, the vice-presidency and the jobs of all nine prefects. The election was called into being by the opposition party Podemos, who hoped to use the gushing anti-La Paz sentiment to clobber president Evo Morales’ with.
However, the whole thing may just as easily backfire. Morales has support among the poor of all provinces not to mention in the over-populated barrios of El Alto and La Paz. Polls suggest he still has a 52 percent approval rating. Meanwhile, separatist prefects, such as Manfred Reyes Villa of Cochabamba, may easily see themselves evicted from power.
Win or lose, neither Morales or the rebel prefects are doing much to make Bolivia a more stable country. With ordinary Bolivians caught between the catastrophic effects of La Niña and the daily woes of rising inflation things aren’t likely to improve in the short term. If, or perhaps when, the situation comes to a head, it’ll take more than another referendum to get Bolivia back on track.
***
Unlike Bolivia, Peru has managed to give the international headlines a wide berth in recent months. Until last week that is, when accusations over the manipulation of official figures left the government panting on the ropes.
The country has seen strong economic growth for the past nine years – last year as much as 9 percent – mainly thanks to the mining boom coupled with smart economic policies. President Alan Garcia, partly blamed for Peru’s hyperinflation in the early eighties, has shown himself to be a much more cautious leader in his second term.
However, his administration is suffering from the same malady as that of his predecessor, Alejandro Toledo. For while Peru’s economy soars, Garcia’s approval ratings have plummeted to around 25 percent.
The reason is simple enough. Despite the bullish figures, Peru has been unable to improve the conditions of the poor, which make up almost half the population. Especially in the Andean south, where up to 70 percent of the people live in impoverished conditions. There, many reject the policies of Garcia as only beneficial to Lima’s middle and upper classes.
There was reason for rejoicing, therefore, when the INEI, the government’s statistics bureau, announced a stunning drop in poverty rates last week. Poverty had dipped below 40 percent the government announced triumphantly, down from 45 percent last year and almost 49 in 2005.
“There is a virtuous circle. The economy is growing and it is starting to generate jobs of better and better quality, and that is reaching, little by little, the whole country,” an elated Felipe Jaramillo, a regional director for the World Bank, told reporters.
That may have been slightly too jubilant for what was to come next. In fact, it’s starting to look as if INEI should be renamed INDEC, in honour of Argentina’s untrustworthy official statistics bureau.
The figures have been criticized from all sides. “Exaggerated and not very credible,” was the reaction of former president Toledo, an opinion echoed in many opposition circles.
More serious though, were the accusations Farid Matuk, Peru’s leading authority on statistics and a former head of INEI. “The numbers have been hammered. They’ve performed a liposuction on the statistics to come up with a good result,” he told La Republica newspaper yesterday.
The accusations are serious and hit the government where it hurts most. It’s apparent inability funnel wealth to those who most need it does not bode well for the future. Alan Garcia must find a way reach the poor and avoid perceived duplicity or the memory of his second term in office will be no better than that of his first.
Photo APOn Sunday the provinces of Beni and Pando voted on autonomy statutes of their own. As in the case of Santa Cruz, the statutes were approved by a big margin (80 percent in Beni, 82 percent in Pando).
Next up is Tarija on June 22, which is also expected to endorse the autonomy statute, hoping to gain greater control over the gas reserves under its vineyards. Then the four regions that make up the so-called ‘half moon’ expect that with the people’s endorsement they can cajole president Evo Morales into delegating important decisions and control over resources to the provinces.
Despite the convincing appearance of the results, there are a few reasons to suggest that the half moon is still a long way from its goal of autonomy. First of all, there’s the turnout. As with the Santa Cruz vote, it was far from convincing.
Abstention was high, as most of those who opposed the referendum simply stayed at home. In Beni 34,5 percent, in Pando 46,5, according to La Razón newspaper yesterday. That’s dangerously close to the 50 percent minimum required for the referenda to be ‘legitimate’, in line with the standards set by the very government detractors who drafted them.
As a result, according to political analyst Ricardo Paz, greater independence for the four regions is not as “irreversible” as Ernesto Suarez, the prefect of Beni, suggested on Sunday night.
“I don’t think the results of the referenda will radically change the government’s perception of what it’s losing with the autonomy process,” Paz said, adding that neither did he feel that the results would give the autonomists such a definitive impulse as to shift the balance of powers and make for a changed negotiation scenario.
Another reason for the four prefects to rein in their optimism is the recall referendum scheduled for August 10. That’s right, democracy triumphs with yet another referendum.
This time around it’s nationwide and approved by both chambers of congress. At stake are the presidency, the vice-presidency and the jobs of all nine prefects. The election was called into being by the opposition party Podemos, who hoped to use the gushing anti-La Paz sentiment to clobber president Evo Morales’ with.
However, the whole thing may just as easily backfire. Morales has support among the poor of all provinces not to mention in the over-populated barrios of El Alto and La Paz. Polls suggest he still has a 52 percent approval rating. Meanwhile, separatist prefects, such as Manfred Reyes Villa of Cochabamba, may easily see themselves evicted from power.
Win or lose, neither Morales or the rebel prefects are doing much to make Bolivia a more stable country. With ordinary Bolivians caught between the catastrophic effects of La Niña and the daily woes of rising inflation things aren’t likely to improve in the short term. If, or perhaps when, the situation comes to a head, it’ll take more than another referendum to get Bolivia back on track.
***
Unlike Bolivia, Peru has managed to give the international headlines a wide berth in recent months. Until last week that is, when accusations over the manipulation of official figures left the government panting on the ropes.
The country has seen strong economic growth for the past nine years – last year as much as 9 percent – mainly thanks to the mining boom coupled with smart economic policies. President Alan Garcia, partly blamed for Peru’s hyperinflation in the early eighties, has shown himself to be a much more cautious leader in his second term.However, his administration is suffering from the same malady as that of his predecessor, Alejandro Toledo. For while Peru’s economy soars, Garcia’s approval ratings have plummeted to around 25 percent.
The reason is simple enough. Despite the bullish figures, Peru has been unable to improve the conditions of the poor, which make up almost half the population. Especially in the Andean south, where up to 70 percent of the people live in impoverished conditions. There, many reject the policies of Garcia as only beneficial to Lima’s middle and upper classes.
There was reason for rejoicing, therefore, when the INEI, the government’s statistics bureau, announced a stunning drop in poverty rates last week. Poverty had dipped below 40 percent the government announced triumphantly, down from 45 percent last year and almost 49 in 2005.
“There is a virtuous circle. The economy is growing and it is starting to generate jobs of better and better quality, and that is reaching, little by little, the whole country,” an elated Felipe Jaramillo, a regional director for the World Bank, told reporters.
That may have been slightly too jubilant for what was to come next. In fact, it’s starting to look as if INEI should be renamed INDEC, in honour of Argentina’s untrustworthy official statistics bureau.
The figures have been criticized from all sides. “Exaggerated and not very credible,” was the reaction of former president Toledo, an opinion echoed in many opposition circles.
More serious though, were the accusations Farid Matuk, Peru’s leading authority on statistics and a former head of INEI. “The numbers have been hammered. They’ve performed a liposuction on the statistics to come up with a good result,” he told La Republica newspaper yesterday.
The accusations are serious and hit the government where it hurts most. It’s apparent inability funnel wealth to those who most need it does not bode well for the future. Alan Garcia must find a way reach the poor and avoid perceived duplicity or the memory of his second term in office will be no better than that of his first.
Labels: Bolivia, referendum, Santa Cruz
posted by PIT @ 9:08 AM
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