FARC flip flop for real?

Curious Chavez U-turn on Colombian guerrillas

Latam Watch

There was always an erratic side to Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez – his unpredictability is part of his undeniable charisma - but events over the past few days would suggest that far from whimsical, he has either become soberingly sensible or completely unhinged.

Chávez meets FARC commander Iván Marquez (left). Photo Diario del Horizonte.

On Saturday he announced he was withdrawing a decree to overhaul to the intelligence services. That decree, announced only days earlier by the same Chávez, would have turned Venezuela into a police state, allowing for the use of anonymous witnesses, secret evidence and blurring the distinction between external threats and political dissent.

Severely criticized and dubbed the “Gestapo Law” by Venezuela’s media, the crisp Bill for Intelligence Services and Counterintelligence was revoked by its instigator, who suddenly called it “indefensible.”

The most stunning U-turn, however, on the part of the Bolivarian came on Sunday, when he called on Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces or FARC to free all its hostages “in exchange for nothing” and disband. AP reports described Chávez comments as “uncharacteristic” – baffling is more like it.

Only a few months ago, he was defending the FARC’s “political project” and systematically referring to the around 800 hostages the guerrillas are holding as “retained” or “political prisoners.” But on Sunday he called them simply “prisoners” and insisted, “an armed guerrilla movement is out of place in Latin America in this day and age.”

Yet, according to Colombian interpretation of the documents found on the now notorious computers of FARC commander Raul Reyes, Chávez was sponsoring this so-called out-of-date movement to the tune of 300 million dollars. What’s more, only this same – bizarre - weekend Colombia said it had captured a Venezuelan national guard officer carrying 40,000 AK-47 assault rifle cartridges believed to be intended for the leftist guerrillas. Caracas has confirmed that the man is a member of the armed forces but claims he was framed.

So what’s going on? Why this sudden about-face from a man who until recently was advocating for international recognition for the FARC as an irregular army.

First of all, both Chávez and the FARC have suffered more than a few blows in the past few months. The guerrilla famously lost three commanders in three weeks in March, although the death of Manuel Marulanda, the long time leader, wasn’t made public until a fortnight ago.

Apart from that desertions are constant, as the Colombian army has stepped up its persecution of the rebels. Besides, Reyes’ computers blew the lid on numerous FARC collaborators and supply lines.

As for Chávez, his popularity has been sliding ever since losing a referendum in December. Since then he has faced protests over new legislation and his crackdown on the media as well as more serious rumblings among the poor over inflation and food shortages. An important detail: 80 percent of Venezuelans disapprove of his dealings with the FARC.

Also not to be overlooked, Colombia and Venezuela are economically intertwined. Trade between the two is worth six billion dollars a year. Rumours that Colombia could cut off the supply of goods as basic as eggs or meat is enough to send Venezuelan consumers into hoarding mode and does little for Chavez popularity or for state-subsidized grocery stores.

It could be that reality is catching up with the former para-trooper and with the army of kidnappers he once sympathized with.

The Caracas Chronicles blog, which has been on Chavez’ case since 2002, suggested that the whole thing may well be an orchestrated attempt by both sides to deal with this reality. “Having Chávez publicly call on them to release all hostages and demobilize could save face on both sides: FARC could argue that, without
Venezuelan patronage, the "struggle" is not sustainable while Chávez could then take credit for demobilizing them” wrote chronicler Quico.

Another alternative, according to the blog, is that Chavez’ speech was purposely deceptive and that he secretely plans to continue bankrolling the insurgents. That view coincides with that of an ex-ally of the Venezuelan president, Rafael Simón Jiménez.

Jiménez, a former speaker of the National Assembly, told the BBCMundo correspondent that he didn’t believe Chávez would end his “strategic alliance” with FARC. All that the Bolivarian was looking to do, he said, was “put on a respectable face (lavarse la cara) vis-a-vis the international community.”

Jimenez suggested that the FARC, after suffering severe military blows, was looking to reinvent itself a political movement and gain power through the ballot box.
However, that’s seems highly unlikely, at least for now. Not in the least because the last time the FARC tried a similar strategy, it cost them dearly. Literally thousands of members of the Union Patriotica party were culled by paramilitaries in the late 1980’s.

It’s undeniable though, that there’s something in the air. Chávez’ comments, be they an abrupt U-turn, a strategic withdrawal or even an insincere veil, have added to the momentum already underway since Raúl Reyes was slain on March 1.

Luis Eliado Pérez, a senator who was kidnapped by the FARC and maintains strange ties with his raptors, said yesterday he expects the guerrillas to announce the release of at least 4 hostages in the coming week. One of them, he claims, could be the French-Colombian Ingrid Betancourt, who is feared to be very ill. Let’s hope his assertions are correct and that this really is the beginning of the end.