Lat-Am Watch: From Russia, with love

Russia smiles on regional arms race

Latam Watch for the Buenos Aires Herald.

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez kicks off a weapons shopping spree today in the Russian capital Moscow, his third in the space of three years. The visit will be the first encounter between the Venezuelan president and his counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, although naturally he'll look in on prime minister Vladimir Putin as well.


Although there's no public shopping list, the preliminary reports of what Venezuela may be buying are impressive.

In May the Russian newspaper Kommersant believed Chávez would spend 2 billion dollars on diesel-powered submarines and MI-28 combat helicopters. Yesterday, Interfax, the Moscow based news agency dampened those high strung expectations just a little. Citing an unnamed source, it claimed that the Bolivarian was interested in buying 20 Tor-M1 missile defence systems, and three Varshavyanka submarines, among others, spending a total of 1 billion dollars.

According to the Gazeta newspaper Chávez is also interested in purchasing military transport planes and regional passenger jets. Other military projects include the building of a plant for Kalashnikov assault rifles and a training centre for Venezuelan helicopter pilots

Chavez told Itar-Tass news agency he wanted to buy Russian tanks as well during the visit: "These are very modern, fast tanks," he apparently said.

In the past few years Chavez has spent around 4.4 billion dollars on Russian built weapons, making Venezuela the country's third most important client after India and China. That's saying something.

The arms deal is likely to be seen in a negative light by Washington, but then rattling the US is not something the Venezuelan president shies away from. "What Chavez likes to do is to shock, and this will create some shock in Washington,'' Riordan Roett, a professor of Latin American studies at Johns Hopkins University, told Bloomberg.

Venezuela's increasing militarization is a concern for the US and for its allies in the region, especially Colombia. Others include the Netherlands which hosts two US airbases located on the Antilles islands of Aruba and Curacao, just a stones' throw from the Venezuelan coast.

Given the events that took place in March, there's even more cause for concern. At the time a raid by Colombian soldiers on Ecuadorean soil caused an international incident which saw Chávez sending troops to the border with Colombia. Further escalation was prevented by a gathering of regional leaders in Santo Domingo.

Despite the sabre-rattling, though, war seemed unlikely at the time. It still does given the vast military superiority of Colombian troops, hardened in 40 years of jungle warfare and backed as they are by US and Israeli technology. For now, the arms purchases although worrying, are not alarming.

In the meantime of course, they serve to strengthen Russian influence in Latin America, which seems to be part of Kremlin policy, beyond simply making a killing on a spend-easy Caribbean head of state.

"The influence of Russia in Latin America is indeed being bolstered in connection with the fact that we have started to show an interest in this region," the political observer,
Vyacheslav Nikonov, told the Interfax agency.

So are we returning the Latin America of the Cold War, which suffered the rivalry of the world's two superpowers at every corner? Not for now, at least, maintains Nikonov. "There is no intention of any kind here (to harm US interests). Russia maintains contacts with current governments in contrast to the USA, which does not have relations with the leadership of those countries where they would like to see other governments."

The vice-president of Moscow's Centre of Political Research, Aleksey Makarkin, echoes that view. "Without doubt, Russia is returning to this region of the world, but in contrast to the USSR, which in its time came to Latin America with an ideological element, the actions of Russia today have political and economic elements," Makarkin told Interfax.

But while belittling the notion that Russia was jockeying for influence in the region, Makarkin makes a curious comparison. "Hugo Chavez is something of a Russian [Georgian President] Saakashvili for America. The Americans are friends with Saakashvili, we are friends with Chavez."

"There is a demonstrative element here. Seeing as America is supporting a politician who is an allergen for Russia, so by the same token Russia is acting in response and is making a political demonstration," the political expert said.

Russian presence in itself is not a bad thing. It comes at a time of greater co-operation between the so-called BRIC nations; Brazil, Russia, India and China and the possibility of improving trade prospects being brokered at the DOHA round of talks.

However, if Russia's main interest is in fuelling an arms race in Latin America, then much more caution is required. Don't forget that Russia also recently sold weapons to Colombia. It looks as if Vladimir Putin aims to get the best of both worlds, even dividing up the contacts between himself and Medvedev. The latter deals with Colombians, Putin with Chávez.

In fact, the commodities windfall of recent years, has boosted military spending across the region. Over the past four years that increase as much as 55 percent, reaching 38.4 billion dollars in 2007, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Most of those dealings are of a defensive nature. Brazil's purchase of nuclear submarine technology from France and its new warships should be seen in light of its ambitions to gain a seat at the Security Council. And protecting new found billion-barrel oil fields.

However, history has taught us that large scale arms purchases by rivalling nations have a tendency to go wrong. The March border crisis only reaffirmed that lesson. Let's hope that the class is paying attention.

On the trail of Dr. Death

Nazi hunters are in town. Yesterday Efraim Zuroff, the director of the Simon Wiesenthal Centre gave a press conference at the Jewish AMIA headquarters in central Buenos Aires. They are on the trail of Aribert Heim, better know as the concentration camp physician "Dr. Death."

I could tell you what they said, but Jeannette already did a much better job.

By JEANNETTE NEUMANN, Associated Press Writer Thu Jul 17, 7:31 PM ET

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - The world's top Nazi-hunter said Thursday he's made progress in finding 94-year-old "Doctor Death," a former concentration camp physician accused of torturing Jewish prisoners as they died and who may have been living for decades in Argentina or Chile

Efraim Zuroff, head of the Israeli branch of the Simon Wiesenthal Center, told a news conference that his mission to the southern reaches of the Americas led him to at least four people who claim to have seen Aribert Heim in the past 45 days.

"We're better off than before we came," Zuroff said. "That doesn't guarantee Heim's capture, but I'm hopeful."

Zuroff launched the investigation last week in southern Chilean fishing town of Puerto Montt, where Heim's daughter long lived. Zuroff has said she frequently traveled to the Patagonian town of San Carlos de Bariloche in Argentina, which he visited this week.

"What we expected to do — and so far we have been successful — is to put in place the tools that will lead to his capture in the next few weeks — or at the most, months," Zuroff said while in Bariloche.

...continues here.

On Tuesday New Zealand als got an update from Lat-Am Watch.

Tears and betrayal liven up Argentine farm crisis

You probably heard about the dramatic finale to yesterday's senate vote. I was unable to post before, but here's the story I collaborated on with the Indy's New York correspondent David Usborne. Also check out some of Cobos' emotional speech below.

A woman president scorned – by her most trusted ally

Argentina farm crisis ends with crushing defeat for Fernandez

By Paul Scheltus in Buenos Aires and David Usborne
Friday, 18 July 2008

After watching its glamorous female president and the all-powerful farming lobby fight each other to a standstill, Argentina was stunned yesterday by one of the most dramatic political betrayals in living memory.

A crisis which has seen months of protests and threatened to starve the cities as the country's legendary gauchos battled against new taxes on agricultural exports, ended with a crushing Senate defeat for President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner that left her seven-month-old government severely weakened.

At the end of an 18-hour debate on the new tax bill, the final word came from her closest political ally, Vice-President Julio Cobos, who was close to tears as he cast the deciding vote against his boss. Their dispute centres on plans to raise the tax on soy exports, Argentina's main foreign currency earner, to almost 50 per cent. But it is being seen as a harbinger of the way in which the global food crisis could destabilise governments worldwide.

....continues here.

Uribe admits Red Cross symbol was used in Betancourt's rescue

Just hours after General Naranjo insisted that the idea was preposterous, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe admitted that one of the rescuers of Ingrid Betancourt and the fourteen other hostages had worn the emblem of the International Red Cross.

CNN broke the story earlier in the day, based on photos and video their reporter Karl Penhaul was shown.

The BBC has this.

Colombia's president says a Red Cross symbol was worn by a member of the military rescue mission that freed 15 hostages from leftist Farc rebels.

President Alvaro Uribe said his government had apologised to the Red Cross for the incident.

Misuse of the Red Cross emblem is against the Geneva Conventions and international humanitarian law.

According Uribe's statement a member of the military rescue crew got so nervous on seeing so many guerrilleros that he slipped on a Red Cross emblem he had stuffed in his pocket. The name of the soldier won't be made public Uribe said, out of "respect for our armed forces."

Although misuse of the Red Cross emblem is punishable, according Mario Iguarán, Colombia's General Attorney, that's only the case when the perpetrator abuses the cross to cause harm or to kill an oppenent. "As we know, during this rescue that wasn't the case," he told El Colombiano.

Mark Ellis of the International Bar Association disagrees. "If you use the emblem in a deceitful way, generally the conventions say it would be a breach. [Based on the information as explained to me,] the way that the images show the Red Cross emblem being used could be distinguished as a war crime, " he explained to CNN.
Here's Uribe himself, courtesy of El Tiempo website.

Crucial senate vote has Argentina on edge

Things are getting pretty tense here today as the senate convenes for the crucial vote on the sliding-scale export duties which have so enraged the farmers and pitted the nation in two halves.

As it stands now, the vote is more or less even, with five, check, three senators still undecided. The question is not only whether or not the draft bill will be approved, but if it is, whether or not it's amended to include concessions to the farmers.

President Cristina Fernández, and her husband and Peronist party leader Néstor Kirchner, want the bill passed as is. That attitude has not only angered the farmers, but everybody else who feels that democracy isn't being served when the executive hands down an ukase to the legislators.

That said, I think (and many people I've spoken to agree) that despite four months of strife and strikes the conflict has strengthened Argentina's institutions and made it a more democratic country. The simple fact that a crisis like this hasn't led to a fall of the government or a military coup (despite the Kirchners' insisting that the farmers were fomenting one) is an achievement in itself.

But this conflict and its culmination in yesterday's 200,000 strong march against government policy, has created alliances between rich and poor and between town and country which were deemed unthinkable just four months ago. That rally eclipsed the 90,000 who marched on Congress to support the Kirchners.

It means that a future government will think twice before undermining the importance of the agricultural sector, which in turn means that federalism has been strengthened. That's a healthy sign after five years of Néstor Kirchner co-opting just about every provincial governor by controlling the federal revenue tap.

Another good sign is the fact that these issues have reached Congress. It took more than 100 days of protest to force Cristina Fernández to accept that her March 11 decree even be submitted to the scrutiny of the legislative power. Although the house of Deputies approved the draft more or less intact, it took much persuading by the government as many of those once presumed Kirchner loyalists, suddenly saw themselves faced with angry constituents.

The same goes for the senate. Again, on paper the president has a majority but it's become painfully clear for Cristina that in practice rubber stamping is out of the question.

By midnight we should know just how much Mrs Kirchner has had to sacrifice, so stay tuned for the result.

Before the vote in the House of Deputies I spoke to the US national breakfast show The Takeaway about the conflict. Listen here.



Meanwhile, here are some pics I took yesterday of both rallies.

FARC: "It was an escape, not a rescue"

Ingrid Betancourt and the 14 other hostages weren't rescued by the Colombian army, but instead escaped from captivity thanks to the treachery of their guards. That, at least, is the FARC version of what happened last week, when Betancourt & Co. appeared from nowhere in helicopters manned by Colombian troops and with their guards bound and handcuffed.

In a statement dated July 5 and published today on the ABR-website, the FARC lay the blame for the hostages' "escape" squarely at the feet of the local commanders César and Enrique who "betrayed their revolutionary committment and the trust placed in them." It seems the FARC secretariat believe that César and Enrique were bribed, which ties in with the 20-million-dollar version of events. Was the perfectly executed no-shot-fired army rescue really a scripted performance after all? Remember Jessica Lynch?

The statement goes on to say that FARC will continue to work for the release of it's combatants in jail and warns that if the government persists with its rescue attempts of hostages then it should be prepared to "assume all the consequences" of its "adventurous decision." That could be veiled threat to kill or maim hostages still being held by the FARC or a threat to do so in the event of another rescue attempt.

Top marks for Montoya

Here's general Montoya, head of the Colombian army, explaining how the daring rescue of Ingrid Betancourt and the 14 other hostages was planned and carried out. He's a great one for fire-side stories, you can tell. Also, notice the way Uribe encourages him to explain in greater detail, like a teacher edging on a bright pupil in front of an audience of parents.

Betancourt for FSN News

I just spoke to Olly Barrat at FSN News, the global radio news network based in New York. We discussed the release of Ingrid Betancourt.



As for the timing of the McCain visit, there may be something to it...

Betancourt: Uribe is a very good president

Just hours after being rescued from six years of being held hostage by the FARC, Ingrid Betancourt answered questions by the press. One of the most surprising things she said was that she supported President Uribe and his controversial reelection in 2002, which is the subject of hot debate at the moment in Colombia.

Ingrid said the she felt the re-election of Uribe had served to deny the FARC the kind of "breathing space" they normally had thanks to changes between tough and more easy going governments. "Uribe is a very, very good president," the former senator said.

Ms Betancourt ran against Uribe in the 2002 elections and her mother often clashed with the Uribe government over its hard line policy on the FARC.

Asked what she would do now, she said she planned to be "one more soldier in the service of the fatherland."

She also said that mediation in negotiating releases by the FARC by the presidents Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa was very important, but she added they must respect the Colombian democracy. The Colombians elected Uribe not the FARC," Betancourt said.

She thanked the army for her rescue extensively, and prayed on her knees with her mother before the press conference.

Addressing the French in their own language, she said she held them in her heart throughout her captivity and thanked the country for caring for her children. She said would visit France soon and thanked both presidents Sarkozy and Chirac.

Ingrid Betancourt

No prizes for guessing today's Lat-Am news. Ingrid Betancourt is free. The Franco-Colombian politician and presidential candidate held hostage by the FARC guerrilla for six years has been rescued! Along with her three US contractors were freed and 11 Colombian citizens.

The FARC have taken more than a few blows in the past months, the worst was probably the bombing the led to the death of second in command Raul Reyes. During the attack - which took place on Ecuadorean soil - the Colombian army captured a number of computers belonging to Reyes. Those now famous laptops have led to the arrest of key suppliers of the FARC as well as seriously embarrassing both president Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Rafael Correa of Ecuador.

With the rescue of Ms Betancourt the guerrilla have lost their most powerful bargaining tool. It's hard to see how they will recover from such a blow.

I wonder if the timing of the operation had anything to do with the visit of presidential candidate John McCain. It's certainly great news at a time when Colombia is in the eye of the US and looking to get the Free Trade Agreement ratified by Congress.

Lat-Am Watch: Evil Twins remain tight-lipped

Montesinos’ defence of Fujimori is typical of the two villains

Lat-Am Watch for the Buenos Aires Herald

Peru’s former president Alberto Fujimori and his one-time spymaster Vladimiro Montesinos never fail to protect each other. Attempts to cover each other’s back have earned them the nickname the Evil Twins.


Yesterday it was the turn of Montesinos to testify during the trial of Fujimori, accused of ordering the killing of 25 people in two separate incidents in 1991 and 1992. The two bespectacled convicts wore almost identical suits and ties.

Montesinos, currently serving a 20-year jail sentence for gunrunning, claimed that Fujimori “had no responsibility in the acts pertaining to this trial.” He also denied he himself had anything to do with the death squads held responsible for many killings during the 1990’s as the government sought to exterminate guerrilla groups.

His statements won’t make much difference to the outcome of the trial experts agreed yesterday. The one-time lawyer to drug dealers is hardly a character witness. But the reappearance of such a controversial figure in the public eye was enough to merit a surge of interest in the trial.

Montesinos return to television screens comes at a time when drug trafficking and coca-growing in Peru are on the increase. The terrorist guerrilla organisation Shining Path, reduced to only 20 men in 1999, has grown again in recent years and is believed to operate in cooperation with drug lords.

The cultivation of coca by the world’s second largest cocaine producer stands at almost 54,000 hectares, according to the latest UN survey, an increase of 4 percent compared to 2006. Meanwhile both the eradication of coca plants and the seizure of cocaine have decreased, the latter by 30 percent in comparison to 2006.

Fighting the drug problem is Peru’s biggest challenge at the moment. As the economy grows at a seething rate, the only way to make sure that swaths of the population aren’t left behind is by freeing them from the tyranny of narco-gangs and offering them other ways to earn a decent living. The violence inherent in the drug trade is a serious threat to democracy.

For Montesinos the answer to the drug and guerrilla conundrum was simple. Fight fire with fire because the ends always justify the means. It’s a principle he repeated once again yesterday, when questioned on illegally tapping phones during his spell as intelligence chief. He told the court a crime could be justified for “reasons of state.”

He then cited Ronald Reagan’s illegal arms dealings with Iran to finance the Nicaraguan contra-rebels as a good example of the ends justifying the means. Not everyone would agree.

However the ‘twins’ Montesinos and Fujimori were as much part of the drug trade as its assailants. As a lawyer, Montesinos made a career out of pandering to drug dealers, according to investigative journalist Gustavo Gorriti. Fujimori knew about this, joking in an interview with Mariella Balbi, that the best to way to fight drug traffickers was to hire the lawyer that defended them.

Montesinos took money from the CIA to fight the drugs dealers he defended and money from Pablo Escobar’s brother to finance Fujimori’s campaign. The Americans knew of his ties to organized crime, but didn’t care, claims Gorriti who spent over 20 years investigating Montesinos.

It wasn’t until he started to sell guns to the Colombian FARC guerrilla group that the spy master got into trouble. It lost him the support of the army and a stream of so-called Vladi-videos were aired on national television showing Montesinos bribing politicians and TV-network owners.

His downfall sped that of Fujimori. The president had just pushed Congress into allowing him to run for an unconstitutional third term. Although he won the 2000 elections by a slight margin, when the Montesinos scandal broke out, support for his mandate vanished.

He finally faxed his resignation to Congress from self-imposed exile in Tokyo. Peru’s parliament refused his request and instead sacked him on grounds of “moral disability.”

The fact that Montesinos and Fujimori were able to get away with what they were doing for so long has a lot to with the situation of Peru at the time. When the two took power in 1990 the extremely violent Shining Path insurgency was everywhere and the economy was spiraling out of control. To many, controlling inflation and hunting down the rebels seemed to justify the erosion of democracy and even human rights violations.

Nowadays the economy is healthy and growing foreign reserves are a safe hedge against crisis thanks to the booming export of commodities. However the drug trade is also getting out of hand as cocaine consumption in the US and Europe increase.

In its efforts to root out the traffickers in their jungle hide outs, Peru should be careful to respect the rule of law and the openness required for democracy to work effectively. Ignoring those rights in the pursuit of a quick victory means stooping to the levels of that disgraced duo, the Evil Twins.

P.S. Colombia is facing a similar threat as President Álvaro Uribe debates whether or not he’ll push for another, unconstitutional, third term in office. Last week he called for a referendum on his mandate, supposed to confirm the already controversial decision to let him run for a second term in 2006.

Although yesterday his aides denied he was aiming to stay in power until after 2010, it’s still not clear what an eventual referendum on his presidency would mean. Right now, an 80 percent approval rating thanks to his war on drugs means that Uribe could probably get away with murder.

Colombia Feliz!

Before I post another story about guerrilla war in Colombia, let's take a little time to sit back and consider this snippet of news. Colombia is the third happiest nation in the world.

That's right. Despite having the biggest refugee crisis outside of Africa, Colombians are still more cheerful than the Swiss, the Dutch and the Canadians to name just a few typical optimists.

The findings are the result of a survey by the University of Michigan. Check out the chart below.

Spymaster and Archterrorist: strangers in the night

Here's something you won't see everyday. Vladimiro Montesinos, Peru's former intelligence chief sat with his one-time nemesis Abimael Guzman, the leader of the bloodthirsty Shining Path guerrilla group. As you can see here they're watching a video of Frank Sinatra performing My Way.

Montesinos presented the video yesterday during the trial of former president Alberto Fujimori apparently in an attempt to "de-mystificate" the terrorist leader.

The bliss moment took place at the Callao naval base where the two are locked up for their respective crimes. Watching the video with them is Elena Iparraguirre, Guzman's current wife who was captured with him in 1992.

Sinatra was the favourite of Augusta Latorre, Guzman's first wife whom the present Mrs Guzman is rumoured to have murdered with his sayso.

Between the two, Montesinos and Guzman, (or more accurately the Peruvian state and Shining Path) are responsible for the death of some 70,000 people, most of them impoverished peasants.

Evo sees ruling classes in tears

"I'm happy about three things in my term so far. The structural changes, the social changes and the fact that I make the oligarchs cry," said a chuffed Evo Morales in an interview with Clarín on Sunday.

In the interview he repeated earlier statements that he might block a trade deal between the EU and the Andean Community, also made up of Ecuador, Colombia and Peru. His threat is a response to the EU's recently approved Return Directive as I discussed in a recent Lat-Am Watch column.

Asked whether he would allow US ambassador Goldberg to visit the presidential palace when he returned from Washington after being summoned there amid protests in Bolivia over US presence, Morales answered; "Only two words. I am and will die an anti-imperialist. One thing is guaranteeing private property, we all have it, another thing is capitalism, neo-liberalism, globalisation."

Here are the videos from the Clarín interview by journalist Pablo Stefanoni